It’s the time of year when a lot of people start checking the status of Arctic ice cover, heading for the september minimum. Here’s what it looks like this week. Blue line is current level. Green dots are the record low 2007 pace. Too early to make predictions based on this, but something to keep in mind. For context, last year’s sea ice video below.
2007 was not the record low for this time of the year that is or was 2011 (2007 was a late bloomer; it was in July that it took off running. JAXA, DMI have 2012 at or below all years to date. The weather over the next few days is favorable for more rapid loss but the rate should slow down and look more like 2007 and 2011 and possibly slower (looking at the AO, clouds, ice Drift: even then I have not been very good at predicting short term melt).
FYI: http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/
Great discussions and graphic
Agreed, it’s a fascinating blog.
@Anthropogenic
How dare you correct a fellow cult member by pointing out facts? Everybody knows that we, the CAGW-cult-crowd are solely driven by ideology, namely our desire to impose a communist world government.
We must always conform to the opinion put forward by our leaders.
I say the current extent is a new record low!
Let’s not become like the people at WUWT who kindly point out and recognize each other’s factual errors and logical fallacies for the benefit of Truth and Justice.
We are not, and will never be like them!
(And on a serious note: I do know that nowhere it is suggested that this is a new record low. If you have bad reading skills, you might conclude so because of the phrase “record low 2007 pace”.)
My apologies, I was actually implying that IT IS a record low or will in the next day or two. Also that NSIDC only shows 2007 and not a composite of the lowest year-to-date line which I would find more interesting on their plots. Also please excuse me due to my handicap and increasing old age, I am more reliant on a voice to text software such as Dragon; it is difficult to correct mistakes. My comments were more directed towards the graph and less so on text of the post. Using JAXA graphic would in my opinion have been more appropriate.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png
I read the whole post, and I understand what Peter wrote. The ice melts all through the summer and continues to melt until the middle of September. The only thing that changes is how quickly or slowly it melts.
If you look at the web site, they have another graph that show all the recent years, but it lags a little on the current year (I think they update it about once a week?) while the graph posted is updated every day. If the current rate of melting continues, it will not be long until it surpasses all recent years.
Look for yourself: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/06/Figure2.png
Neil
Peter, please delete this noise!
hm… to those that downvoted this orphaned message, I was referring to some spam that Peter since deleted, not the article!
I thought I was doing everyone a favour! oh well…
For the overall health of the Arctic system the influence of the positive feedback by solar radiation is more influenced during the months of June and July than at any other time of the year. The maximum amount of solar radiation a.k.a Arctic high noon has a greater affect by the loss of ice during this time .. The more water exposed during this critical period has a greater positive feedback. Unfortunately we tend to emphasize the year end minimum. The year end minimum for each year is more a function of wind, cloud cover, ice export for the year (year-to-year variations minus the trendline). That’s why 2007 was an extreme outsider a perfect storm sort of speak; unique favorable winds and a minimum cloud cover. The sea surface temperature and the air temperature are responsible for the trendline. That’s why in the last few years typical wind patterns and cloud covers are generating minimum ice extent very near the 2007 minimum which is more disturbing than the original 2007 event.
The point I was trying to make is that a record loss in the most critical time of the year is occurring now. (Assuming typical cloud and wind patterns for these months). And the most disturbing part is this is the third consecutive year that this has occurred 2010, 2011, and now 2012.
This is the point I was trying to make and I apologize for the confusion
Thanks for the info.
@ anthropogenic et al
I agree 110% with your points on the composite minimum line and the relevance of June-July cover for the albedo feedback.
However, the fall cover is also of great importance because of the evaporation and heat exchange between ocean and a rapidly cooling atmosphere, and its effect on winter weather in NH temperate zones.
Anyway, I’m not sure whether my stupid humor came through.
My point was mainly to show that on ‘our side’ we can point out ‘inconvenient facts’. I’d like to see a commenter at WUWT show a factual error to a fellow without getting bood out of the room!
Overlaying these two graphs, we’re still behind 2010, and I don’t think we’ll do anything else but merely blip through that line to rebound back soon thereafter.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2012/06/Figure2.png
Maybe, reality will surprise me…
Hi Arne, I got it and enjoyed it. 🙂 So far the curve just looks to me like lots of thin ice that is melting rapidly. But I understand it’s too early to know where we will wind up this year.
I think we are in full agreement including the fall, but most people don’t talk about the Jun-July or see it as important as well.
I enjoyed the humor and your point and also agree
As for the graphs:
nsidc uses a longer smoothing technique in their graphs then say JAXA which uses latest two days.
Here is the data from JAXA for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012: Notice that we are now at the lowest for this date.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
Date 06,14: 10442344,10699531,10714063,10875625,10201094,10177969,10116406
If you really like to see something cool check out Arctic Temperatures DMI below and JAXA. During the period (now over) of rapid melt you will see the temperature sharply reverse (Note the temps dropped during this rapid melt.). Melting ice cools the air and freezing ice warms the air. The rapid freeze in the fall shows up really well by sharply reversing – raising the temperature on the graph until it stops or slows down (freezing), so keeps watching after the minimum. It just fascinates me every year to see the Artic Temperature change as a result of the heat exchange of state changes (water) there.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php Temp
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm extent
I’m sure alias “Steven Goddard” will soon make an Arctic sea ice recovery out of that 🙂
More important the Arctic sea ice mass!
http://climatechangesme.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/ArcticSeaIce.png
Nearly five years since I wandered back into the climate change debate. This seems like where I came in. Given the thinning and reduction in extent, I do not see how we can expect the ice minimum to stay above zero until 2030.
If we fit an exponential curve to the PIOMAS data for the ice maximum then it would appear year round navigation will be possible mid twenties and without any restriction mid thirties.
There will be shipping once the lanes are open regularly for four weeks, this will provide an anthropogenic feedback inhibiting thin ice formation.
I do not see how we can have any sea ice after mid century. then with the warming seas we will inevitably see accelerated melting of the ice sheets of Greenland.