Month: November 2011

PIG – the Pine Island Glacier, which has been called the “soft underbelly” of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), has just developed a large new crack, serendipitously observed by NASA scientists on a research flight. (above)

Recent studies have focused on the PIG as one of the critical areas to watch for evidence of how the West Antarctic Sheet will respond to changing climate. The British Antarctic Survey recently concluded:

It appears that PIG is not only out of balance but continues to move further out of balance. If there is a feedback process, where downstream thinning causes further ungrounding and acceleration, then this could result in a major retreat of the ice stream.

The new observations seem consistent with this conclusion.

MSNBC:

Scientists on an aerial survey of Antarctica have come across an 18-mile-long break in an ice shelf — a sign that the sensitive area is giving birth to an iceberg that will be larger than New York City.

“We are actually now witnessing how it happens,” Michael Studinger, project scientist with NASA’s IceBridge survey, said in a statement Wednesday. “It’s part of a natural process but it’s pretty exciting to be here and actually observe it while it happens.”

The scientists were aboard a NASA jet on Oct. 14, making measurements of Pine Island Glacier and its ice shelf, when they came across the crack.

Glaciers naturally give birth to icebergs, but scientists are concerned that warming temperatures might be destabilizing those in Antarctica and Greenland by eroding the ice shelves floating on water that hold them back up against the mainland.

Without the ice shelves, those glaciers could flow much faster into the ocean, raising sea levels.

Scientists call Pine Island Glacier “the largest source of uncertainty in global sea level rise projections,” NASA noted in its statement.

“It is likely that once the iceberg floats away, the leading edge of the ice shelf will have receded farther than at any time since its location was first recorded in the 1940s,” NASA noted.

Grim Forecast from 1978 

Glacier expert, and advisor to this series, Mauri Pelto, wrote about PIG in RealClimate in 2009:
Continue reading “New Crack in the PIG”

Environmental Leader:

Greenhouse gas emissions reached their highest point ever last year, making it “extremely challenging” to prevent global temperature rising to dangerous levels, the International Energy Agency said this weekend.

The IEA said that 30.6 gigatons of carbon dioxide were emitted in 2010, up five percent from 2008’s level of 29.3 Gt.

This increase means world leaders will struggle to keep to their goal of preventing a temperature rise of more than two degrees Celsius, described by many scientists as the threshold to potentially dangerous climate change, IEA chief economist Fatih Birol said. The two degree limit was agreed at UN climate change talks in Cancun last year.

“I am very worried. This is the worst news on emissions,” Birol told the Guardian. “It is becoming extremely challenging to remain below two degrees. The prospect is getting bleaker. That is what the numbers say.”

But Birol added that government action could still prevent disaster. “If we have bold, decisive and urgent action, very soon, we still have a chance of succeeding,” he said.

The IEA says that for a two degree increase to be averted, global energy-related emissions in 2020 must not be greater than 32 Gt. This means that over the whole of the next decade, emissions must rise by less than they did between 2009 and 2010.

We already knew, from 3 new studies that have come out just recently, that burning coal is a net negative for the economy, and if we paid the true costs, even apart from climate change, coal electricity would (at least) triple (!) in price.

Now a reminder.

Coal Tattoo:

Let’s start this morning by remembering the standard line from opponents of strong EPA regulation of toxic coal ash: States can handle this. And then, let’s take a look at the report out this morning from the folks at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal:

State environment regulators gave We Energies a pass in 2008 – exempting it from certain rules so that construction work could be done atop coal ash landfills on a bluff on the Lake Michigan shoreline at the utility’s Oak Creek Power Plant, officials said Tuesday.

Department of Natural Resources officials determined in 2008 that construction activities on an ash-filled ravine and other small landfills south of the utility’s two plants on the property would not increase the risk of the ash or other contaminants getting into the lake, said Frank Schultz, the department’s waste supervisor in Milwaukee. We Energies is building an air quality control facility for the older power plant at the site.

State environmental and utility regulators at the time decided that the construction activity would not significantly damage the environment, so no impact studies were needed.

Work progressed until Monday, when a wide section of the bluff, including part of an ash-filled ravine, collapsed, sending a destructive cascade of mud down the slope and into the lake. No one is certain of the extent of the environmental damage, DNR officials said.

It wasn’t so long ago that Earthjustice and Appalachian Mountain Advocates warned of the dangers of letting states handle this important job:

Our review reveals that most states do not require all coal ash landfills and ponds to employ the most basic safeguards required at household trash landfills, such as composite liners, groundwater monitoring, leachate collection systems, dust controls and financial assurance; nor do states require that coal ash ponds be operated to avoid catastrophic collapse. In addition, most states allow the placement of toxic coal ash in water tables and the siting of ponds and landfills in wetlands, unstable areas and floodplains. When measured against basic safeguards that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identified as essential to protect health and the environment,1 state regulatory programs fail miserably to guarantee safety from contamination and catastrophe.

Continue reading “Utility Saves Cash – while Coal Ash Splash Trashes Lake Michigan”

Fukushima, 8 months later:  the accident is still not over, much less the clean up, which has hardly begun.

Asahi Shimbun -November 02, 2011

Officials of Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) pumped water mixed with boric acid into the No. 2 reactor at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant early on Nov. 2 after finding traces of xenon, a radioactive gas that might indicate nuclear fission has taken place.

Officials of the company said that some parts of the reactor may have reached criticality, a state of self-sustaining nuclear fission. Fuel believed to have melted in the accident triggered by the March 11 earthquake may have caused the fission. The boric acid was pumped into the reactor to suppress the reactions.

Radiation levels near the Fukushima plant have not shown any unusual surge, but the latest development may hinder plans by the central government to bring the Fukushima nuclear accident under control by the end of the year.

Continue reading “TEPCO: 8 Months out, Reactor may have reached Criticality again”

Mike Mann strikes another blow against the ignorati.

Chris Mooney at Desmogblog: 

Yesterday in a Virginia courtroom, Michael Mann—who is quickly becoming the Galileo of climate science—triumphed over the conservative American Tradition Institute, (isn’t witch hunting an American Tradition? – PS) and ongoing attempts at scientist-harassment.

More specifically, Prince William County Circuit Court Judge Gaylord Finch both allowed Mann to join the case that ATI is pursuing against the University of Virginia to get Mann’s emails, and allowed UVA to back out of an agreement with ATI to let it review some of Mann’s emails that the university is nevertheless claiming are exempt from disclosure.

This is a bit technical, as is often the case in ongoing court proceedings, but let’s remember why it matters.

The ATI lawsuit is a follow-on to Virginia attorney general Ken Cuccinelli’s outrageous harassment of Mann. (see at 2;35 in above video – PS) And protecting Mann’s emails from disclosure is critical for ensuring that ideological fishing expeditions that attack and harass scientists aren’t permitted. The contrary result, as many scientific groups have asserted, could have a chilling effect on academic research and freedom of inquiry in controversial areas.

Mann has been greatly supported by the Union of Concerned Scientists, the American Geophysical Union, and other organizations, and by grassroots fundraising efforts to support his legal expenses. (to contribute, you can click the icon in the right column on this page..PS)

Let us also add that there is no reason to think Mann has done anything wrong, scientifically or otherwise, or that his emails will reveal some malfeasance. To the contrary, Mann and other scientists involved in the pseudo-scandal of “ClimateGate” have been repeatedly vindicated by independent investigations.

Meanwhile, the connections between ATI and various other conservative and industry groups and funders have now been extensively documented.

I called Mann the “Galileo of climate science,” and increasingly, I think this is not mere hyperbole.

I’ve been following climate science, and political attacks on it, for nearly a decade. Throughout that period, conservatives have been relentlessly attacking Mann because of the hockey stick graph. And starting in 2005, there have been attempts—first in Congress, then using the legal process—to wrest information from Mann, information whose disclosure would simply allow conservative motivated reasoners to come up with new reasons to criticize and attack him.

This is a beast that, at all costs, must not be fed.

At the same time, all of this has surely exacted a serious toll on Mann himself in the form of personal stresses and, perhaps, legal expenses.

Mann has risen to the occasion, however, and fought back admirably and courageously.

In the process, he has become a hero and a role model for standing up against the forces of ideology and unreason.

And in turn, as this long and completely unnecessary legal process continues, we must continue to give him our full and absolutely unwavering support.

The Ultimate climate gate/hockey debate debunk video is below.

Continue reading “Mike Mann Wins one for the Planet”

More brilliant stuff at calamitiesofnature.com