Energy Information Administration:
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2011 (IEO2011) projects that the amount of global hydroelectric and other renewable electric generating capacity will rise 2.7% per year through 2035, more than any other electricity generating source (see chart above). The IEO2011 also projects that China and India will lead the way in adding hydroelectric and renewable electric generating capacity.
In pointing this out, Bruce Nilles of Sierra Club notes in an email:
Its as much renewables as natural gas that is replacing coal.
Non-hydro renewables are on a pace to surpass hydro in two years.
Utility scale solar also had a record month. Production from wood is down significantly.
Iowa comes in at a full quarter, i.e. 25.2%, of its electricity from wind power.
6 coal fired units retired including one in PA that was 279 MW.
However, overall consumption continues to go up and is at pre-recession levels (not good)
There is a catch (there’s *always* a catch!) in the information presented here. The report predicts capacity, not generation. Both wind and solar have low capacity factors. Here’s a quick table from Wikipedia:
Wind farms 20-40%.
Photovoltaic solar in Massachusetts 12-15%.
Photovoltaic solar in Arizona 19%.
Hydroelectricity, worldwide average 44%[citation needed], range of 10% – 99% depending on design (small plant in big river will always have enough water to operate and vice versa), water availability (with or without regulation via storage dam, where a storage dam is designed to store at least enough water to operate the plant at full capacity for around half a year to allow full regulation of the annual flow of the river).
Nuclear energy 70% (1971-2009 average of USA’s plants).
Nuclear energy 91.2% (2010 average of USA’s plants).
They don’t list coal or geothermal, but these both have capacity factors around 90%.
Interesting graph and even more interesting data in that report. We took a slightly different take, looking at the projected growth in solar capacity and related that back to U.S. solar policy (specifically federal tax policy). Our conclusion? Policies matter! You can check out our take at our blog:
http://runonsun.com/~runons5/blogs/blog1.php/solecon/why-solar-policy-matters
Jim