El Niño is a phenomenon in the Pacific, but it affects everyone on every continent, and the last big ones ratcheted up global temperatures dramatically. “Super” El Niño on the way.
Maybe.
A rare “super El Niño” is more likely to develop by the fall of 2026, according to a leading European weather forecast model that points to a 75% chance that tropical waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean will become much warmer than normal by October.
The updated outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecastsmarks a notable shift from earlier projections released in March, when forecasters were less certain whether El Niño would fully develop or how strong it would become.
Model guidance now suggests El Niño is likely to form — and could become unusually strong. The naturally occurring, cyclical event, marked by above-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, can shift weather patterns around the world.
Ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific could climb 4 to 5 degrees above average, approaching levels seen in the strongest events on record.
Just weeks ago, the tropical Pacific was expected to transition from La Niña into a neutral phase, with limited confidence in what might follow.
That transition is still underway. But a large pool of unusually warm water beneath the surface has persisted, and recent forecasts indicate heat is increasingly likely to rise and spread eastward, a key step in building El Niño.
If that process continues, it would mark a clear escalation from earlier forecasts that leaned toward a weaker or more uncertain outcome.
Ben Noll in Washington Post:
During a typical El Niño, a warming patch of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean influences what regions experience droughts, floods, extreme heat, hurricanes and declining sea ice. During relatively rare super El Niño events, happening once every 10 to 15 years on average, the effects may be stronger, more persistent and more widespread.
That’s because sea temperatures in that key region of the Pacific Ocean warm more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, leading to a strong atmospheric response — typically peaking in December or January.
For example, the Western United States, parts of Africa, Europe and India could face a hotter-than-average summer, some tropical countries, such as those in the Caribbean and Indonesia could face worse drought and extreme heat, while more tropical cyclones could develop in the Pacific, with fewer in the Atlantic.
This possible super El Niño could also push global temperatures to record levels, particularly in 2027, and have agricultural impacts as weather patterns change.
“Real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years,” wrote Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at Albany.