I watched weather radar as yet another ice storm raked the Upper Great Lakes Region last night. More coming this weekend.
I’ve posted about the long term impact on forests and infrastructure. Each new event underlines to increasing costs of global change, even in this “climate haven”.
Interlochen Public Radio (Michigan):
As climate change warms the Great Lakes region, one scientist thinks Michigan could be at a higher risk for more freezing rain events like the one experienced this past weekend.
“We see evidence that suggests that the Great Lakes region as a whole is in the middle of pretty fast warming,” said Richard Rood, a professor emeritus of climate and space sciences and engineering at the University of Michigan.
Rood currently has a paper in the peer-review process that analyzes freezing rain data in the Great Lakes over the past several decades.
“What we would call the average location of the freezing line is moving further and further north, which means that in places where it used to snow quite reliably, we’re now more likely to see freezing rain,” Rood said.
And in places further south, freezing rain is more often giving way to regular rain. On top of that, Rood said freezing rain is changing.
“It’s becoming very erratic,” he said. “You’re likely to see a very large freezing rain event, because there’s just more water available.”
Marty Baxter, a professor of meteorology with Central Michigan University, said the link between ice storms and climate change isn’t totally clear yet.
“In [the] future climate, you’ll have more available water vapor that could lead to more rain,” Baxter said. “But the real issue is, will you see ground temperatures cold enough to make freezing rain?”
Rood said northern Michigan’s recent ice storm checks all the boxes for a weather event that could’ve been influenced by climate change, but it’s too soon to tell.
Minnesota Public Radio January 13 2023:
The powerful storm that moved into the state on Dec. 13 dumped more than eight inches of snow northern Minnesota, with more than a foot across much of the region.
But it wasn’t the amount of snow that caused so much damage. The exceptionally high water content of the snow produced snow that felt like wet concrete. It stuck to trees and branches, bending younger, more flexible trees down, but also snapping branches and trunks in two.
“That storm might be the most damaging storm to Minnesota’s forests of any winter storm in my career,” said Minnesota Department of Natural Resoures senior climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld.
It wasn’t like a “blowdown,” when straight line winds mow down trees in a relatively limited area. This storm, Blumenfeld said, wasn’t nearly so concentrated, but the damage was much more widespread.
“In any one area, it may look minor, but when you add it all up, it’s actually a massive tree damage event.”
Big impact of these storms is power outages as poles snap like matchsticks under the weight of tons of ice. Burying lines could help, but that’s expensive.
Burying power lines often comes up as a potential solution for preventing outages and minimizing the costs of storm recovery. And for good reason — underground wires are proven to increase reliability, according to researchers, electric utilities and regulators.
Last year, the storm knocked out power for some 200,000 people. Recovery cost utilities hundreds of millions of dollars, leading to increased electric bills for ratepayers across the region, as emergency federal aid hit delays.
The state’s largest electric co-op, Great Lakes Energy Cooperative, saw more than 66,000 power outages last year from the storm, and recovery costs totaled more than $150 million. In response to the storm, the co-op implemented a policy in December that requires any new lines to be installed underground, in an effort to increase resiliency.
Consumers Energy, another large electric provider in the region, says they hear from customers “consistently” about burying more lines. Last week, the Michigan Public Service Commission approved a $276.6 million rate hike for Consumers Energy — the largest increase in decades — to improve reliability for customers, which includes undergrounding some lines. Regulators said a typical residential customer using 500 kilowatt-hours a month will see an increase of $6.46, or 6.1%, in their monthly bill.
“There’s no better way to improve the resilience of the grid than just to get the lines out of the way of all the trees and ice and wind. Now, it comes at a cost,” said Greg Salisbury, Consumers Energy’s senior vice president of electric distribution. The company estimates it’s about $400,000 per mile to bury a line.
This year, Consumers Energy plans to bury more than 10 miles of lines around the state. That’s a small number, compared to the nearly 100,000 miles in the utility’s system, of which about 15% is already underground.
“Our viewpoint is that each circuit needs to be treated with the right interventions to get the best outcomes for the best cost for those customers,” Salisbury said.
Detroit Free Press, October 26, 2023:
“Over the last 20 years, we’ve seen an increase in both the frequency of storms and higher wind speeds, some of the most extreme winds within the last four years,” Garrick Rochow, president and CEO of Consumers Energy, said on the call. “We’re clearly seeing the effects of climate change.”
For example, he said the design standard for its system was to withstand 40 mph winds. Now, that’s been changed to 80 mph.