Two economists are walking in a forest when they come across a pile of shit.
The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit.
They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit.
The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.”
The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit.
Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, “You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can’t help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing.”
“That’s not true”, responded the second economist. “We increased the GDP by $200!”
Helene churned through Florida and Georgia last September before it detoured into Appalachia, where it unleashed record rain that caused mudslides and raging floods. More than 100 people died in North Carolina alone. The devastation in the western part of the state was overwhelming. Fixing communities affected by Helene would cost $59.6 billion, the state estimated in December. Federal and state agencies sent more than $5.7 billion to the stricken region through September.
Weather disasters like Helene are becoming both more frequent and more severe because of climate change. Although they blow over fast in physical terms, the economic impacts play out slowly. It takes three to six months for survivors’ insurance checks to land, at best; maybe three years for federal reimbursements to cash-strapped localities to drip out.
The result is that the US is now always paying to recover from disasters, and this is contributing a larger and larger share of GDP growth. The US has run up about $7.7 trillion in climate-related costs since 2000, according to research by Andrew John Stevenson, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
“It is undeniable now that climate change is having significant effects on the drivers of the economy,” says Sarah Bloom Raskin, a professor at Duke Law School and former deputy treasury secretary in the Obama administration. “You don’t have to squint hard to see that extreme weather events are so harsh and strong, and so repeated, that they are affecting labor-market functioning, supply chains, insurance markets and inflation dynamics in ways that are pronounced, prolonged and pervasive.”
Continue reading “Disaster a Growth Industry in the Climate Altered World”

