9 thoughts on “More Solar Answers for Uncle Bob: “Solar is Not Reliable””
Uncle Bob is right! Solar is not only inherently low capacity, but it’s subject to erratic cloud cover and wind and solar are not always complimentary. Batteries are expensive no matter how much you try to hide small energy storage numbers with high power capacity numbers. While battery costs may come down, the decreasing utilization of increasing battery storage (when you actually have significant amounts) makes costs go up just like it does for under utilized gas backup plants. Batteries also have to be charged and if you’re doing it with wind and solar, it means more land, transmission and mineral resources.
Dan is RIGHT!! The FACTS on the ground disprove the outdated, misleading or just plain wrong claims Mike is putting forth. Everywhere solar and batteries (and wind) have been deployed in large numbers, the reliability of the grid has gone UP NOT DOWN.
When the good news is also the bad news: We’re celebrating unprecedented massive investment in clean energy for “limiting the rise” in global emissions.
China’s Carbon Emissions Are Set to Decline Years Earlier Than Expected
“China’s rollout of 300 gigawatts of new wind and solar power last year was for the first time enough to cover its new electricity demand
China last year installed more solar power than the total installed capacity in the U.S
China’s massive rollout of renewable energy is accelerating, its investments in the sector growing so large that international climate watchdogs now expect the country’s greenhouse-gas emissions to peak years earlier than anticipated—possibly as soon as this year.”
The rapid capacity growth has been driven by a set of government targets announced in 2020, under which Beijing plans to achieve peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The government committed to construct [1,200,000 MW] of renewables capacity by 2030 to support this, but China is on track to meet that goal five years early.
I sorted by “Begin building” and “Commercial operation” dates to tease out how much of that “renewables” commitment is covered by nuclear power plants either already in the pipe but due to become operational between 2020 and 2030, or scheduled to start and end within that window.
Previously under construction with commercial operation within the window: ~6,000 MW
Actively under construction since the start of the window decade and theoretically online by 2030: ~18,500 MW
Per that table, a bunch more are “Planned” but not “shovel-ready”.
AFAICT (check my math), of the 1,200,000 MW of government-committed renewables, about 24,500 MW (so far) are nuclear power.
NB: Thanks to climate change and drought, hydropower has gone down somewhat in the past few years.
Just Have a Think did a video today reviewing some developments in China and at one point mentioned that their nuclear had kind of plateaued, but that wind/solar are booming and they plan gigantic amounts of pumped hydro, too.
Uncle Bob is right! Solar is not only inherently low capacity, but it’s subject to erratic cloud cover and wind and solar are not always complimentary. Batteries are expensive no matter how much you try to hide small energy storage numbers with high power capacity numbers. While battery costs may come down, the decreasing utilization of increasing battery storage (when you actually have significant amounts) makes costs go up just like it does for under utilized gas backup plants. Batteries also have to be charged and if you’re doing it with wind and solar, it means more land, transmission and mineral resources.
Stop buying your batteries at Saks Fifth Avenue.
Dan is RIGHT!! The FACTS on the ground disprove the outdated, misleading or just plain wrong claims Mike is putting forth. Everywhere solar and batteries (and wind) have been deployed in large numbers, the reliability of the grid has gone UP NOT DOWN.
The Chinese are not Uncle Bob:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-installed-solar-power-capacity-rises-552-2023-2024-01-26/
Thankfully:
https://www.iea.org/news/major-growth-of-clean-energy-limited-the-rise-in-global-emissions-in-2023
When the good news is also the bad news: We’re celebrating unprecedented massive investment in clean energy for “limiting the rise” in global emissions.
China’s Carbon Emissions Are Set to Decline Years Earlier Than Expected
“China’s rollout of 300 gigawatts of new wind and solar power last year was for the first time enough to cover its new electricity demand
China last year installed more solar power than the total installed capacity in the U.S
China’s massive rollout of renewable energy is accelerating, its investments in the sector growing so large that international climate watchdogs now expect the country’s greenhouse-gas emissions to peak years earlier than anticipated—possibly as soon as this year.”
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-carbon-emissions-are-set-to-decline-years-earlier-than-expected-cfc99dd2
Check out this handy-dandy nuclear power plant list for China.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_commercial_nuclear_reactors#China
I sorted by “Begin building” and “Commercial operation” dates to tease out how much of that “renewables” commitment is covered by nuclear power plants either already in the pipe but due to become operational between 2020 and 2030, or scheduled to start and end within that window.
Previously under construction with commercial operation within the window: ~6,000 MW
Actively under construction since the start of the window decade and theoretically online by 2030: ~18,500 MW
Per that table, a bunch more are “Planned” but not “shovel-ready”.
AFAICT (check my math), of the 1,200,000 MW of government-committed renewables, about 24,500 MW (so far) are nuclear power.
NB: Thanks to climate change and drought, hydropower has gone down somewhat in the past few years.
Just Have a Think did a video today reviewing some developments in China and at one point mentioned that their nuclear had kind of plateaued, but that wind/solar are booming and they plan gigantic amounts of pumped hydro, too.
“Will China win the energy transition race?”
The good news is that things are getting worse slower! Is good news if a trifle imperfect.