Month: November 2023

Palm Springs Desert Sun:

The hot brine located in a vast underground reserve beneath the Salton Sea likely contains enough lithium to build batteries for 375 million electric vehicles,according to a new report released Tuesday.

The report from Lawrence Berkely National Laboratory and funded by the Energy Department represents the first time researchers have thoroughly quantified how much lithium might be present in the underground reserve.

Researchers found that an estimated 18 million metric tons of lithium carbonate is likely available in the large underground pool, which isn’t connected to the Salton Sea.

That large of a lithium deposit could “enable the United States to meet or exceed global lithium demand for decades,” according to a press release from the Department of Energy.

US Department of Energy:

The analysis confirms the region has significant potential as a domestic source of this critical mineral used in batteries for stationary storage and EVs, both of which are crucial to the Biden-Harris Administration’s goal of a net-zero emissions economy by 2050.

“Lithium is vital to decarbonizing the economy and meeting President Biden’s goals of 50% electric vehicle adoption by 2030,” said Jeff Marootian, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. “This report confirms the once-in-a-generation opportunity to build a domestic lithium industry at home while also expanding clean, flexible electricity generation. Using American innovation, we can lead the clean energy future, create jobs and a strong domestic supply chain, and boost our national energy security.”

The United States currently has limited capabilities to extract, refine, and produce domestically sourced lithium, meaning nearly all lithium for U.S. needs must be imported. Geothermal brines, which are a byproduct of geothermal electricity generation, often have high concentrations of minerals like lithium and zinc. While exact concentrations of these minerals depend on the location and surrounding geology, the use of direct lithium extraction (DLE) from geothermal brines offers a promising opportunity to couple clean, renewable electricity with a source of domestic lithium. Findings of the analysis are based on the ability to access the entire Salton Sea geothermal reservoir for electricity production, as well as the ability to fully extract lithium resources from resulting geothermal brines. 

The Salton Sea Known Geothermal Resource Area (KGRA) has about 400 megawatts (MW) of geothermal electricity-generation capacity installed and is estimated to have the potential for up to 2,950 MW, leaving extensive room to increase geothermal electricity generation while accessing more of the region’s available lithium resources—enabling the United States to meet or exceed global lithium demand for decades. The study also assessed environmental impacts of lithium extraction, including water use, air emissions, and solid waste, and engaged the surrounding community for listening sessions and other discussions to ensure consideration for local concerns and ideas.

Continue reading “With No Mining, This Lithium Resource is Immense”

You can watch the whole conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin here. There’s a little bit more nuance in the full version, but I wonder if “X” competitors like Bluesky are kind of celebrating each new level of crazy behavior.

I’ve done a lot of reporting on the experiences of Farmers and Landowners across the Midwest, who have endured far-right wing harassment, abuse and even threats of violence simply for wishing to site clean energy on their land.
Michigan’s new energy legislation reflects awareness of that injustice, and provides for State level action if cowed or cowardly local boards tie up projects with “poison pill” ordinances. The state Public Service Commission will stand up new staff to handle such siting challenges, if locals can’t find agreement with landowners and clean energy developers. The legislation provides a number of protections for local interests, as well as specific standards for such sticky issues as setbacks, noise and buffers.

One of the farmers I interviewed in the course of the last year has become a symbol for the property rights of landowners – Clara Ostrander of Azalia, Michigan, was invited to the podium at the signing ceremony.

Continue reading “Michigan’s Most Controversial New Energy Law: Clean Energy Rights for Farmers”

SAF or “Sustainable Aviation Fuel” as described here, leaves me with a whole lot of questions.
Some of it comes from kitchen grease, of which there is nowhere near enough. Some comes from biomass. What biomass? from where?
Biomass is something we’re trying to get away from in large scale power generation. Why is it a good idea here?
Also, ethanol. Not even close to a solution now. Not seeing how it suddenly becomes a better idea to feed it to jets.

Reuters:

A Virgin Atlantic (VA.UL) passenger jet powered by 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) completed a London-to-New York jaunt on Tuesday, showcasing the potential of low-carbon options, which are a tiny fraction of the industry’s fuel mix.

The flight is not the first time the industry has staged demonstrations to highlight its aspiration to reduce emissions – and appeal for government support. Indeed, Tuesday’s flight carried only Virgin’s billionaire founder, Richard Branson, and a few others, and it is set to return to London using conventional jet fuel.

Airlines are banking on fuel made from waste to reduce their emissions by up to 70%, but the high cost and tight supply of materials needed to make SAF make large-scale production difficult. SAF accounts for less than 0.1% of total global jet fuel in use today and costs three to five times as much as regular jet fuel.

The flight, operated by a Virgin Boeing (BA.N) 787 powered by Rolls-Royce (RR.L) Trent 1000 engines, is the first time a commercial airliner has flown long haul on 100% SAF. It had no paying passengers or cargo.

“It’s going to take a while before we can get enough fuel where everybody’s going to be able to fly. But you’ve got to start somewhere,” said Branson in London before the plane took off.

Aviation is not an easy industry to decarbonize compared to road travel, and it accounts for an estimated 2-3% of global carbon emissions.

Engines in commercial use are not yet certified to fly on more than 50% SAF and the vast majority of flights blend in a much lower amount of SAF with traditional jet fuel.

SAF is already used in jet engines as part of a blend with traditional kerosene, but after successful ground tests, Virgin and its partners Rolls-Royce, Boeing (BA.N), BP (BP.L) and others won permission to fly using only SAF from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, Canadian and UK regulators.

The flight took off at 1149 GMT from London’s Heathrow Airport with Branson, Virgin Atlantic Chief Executive Shai Weiss and Britain’s transport minister, Mark Harper, on board. It landed at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport at 1405 EST (1905 GMT), 35 minutes early, where it was met by U.S. Deputy Transportation Secretary Polly Trottenberg, among others.

Really significant – a heavy lift for a lot of us who worked to make this happen.
I felt confident once Gretchen Whitmer put her prestige the line to make this happen.
Reaction from the usual suspects has been predictable and intense, so in many ways the work is just beginning, but this gives clean energy advocates some powerful tools, including siting reform that should help keep Facebook frenzied MAGA style Flashmobs from continuing to harass and intimidate local farmers and officials.
Above, Governor Gretchen Whitmer surrounded by supporters, including, second from right, farm owner Clara Ostrander, who stood up to a withering barrage from local NIMBYs to assert her rights to diversify her farm’s income, and preserve family land for her next generation. (see below)

WLNS TV Lansing:

On Tuesday afternoon, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed a slate of new clean energy bills recently passed by the State House and Senate.

These bills are designed to transition Michigan from a majority fossil-fuel-powered state into a national leader in renewable energy within the next two decades.

The Clean Energy Future Plan is one of the most ambitious climate mandates in the country and has been gaining national attention for its size and scope.

Supporters of the plan in our own state said it will help fight climate change, create a healthier environment for the state, and provide more jobs.

“It’s gonna help us move Michigan to a clean energy by 2040, it’s gonna be a great opportunity to create more jobs, here in Michigan but at the same time be able to protect the health and welfare of our citizens across the state,” Sam Singh, Michigan Senator said.

Details of the plan released by senate democrats include an electric grid with a 100% clean energy standard, improving energy efficiency and reducing waste.

Continue reading “Michigan’s Whitmer Signs Sweeping Energy Bills”

Electric:

South Korea’s largest automaker, Hyundai Motor, is bolstering EV production despite rumors that the market is slowing. The automaker revealed plans to suspend operations at its main factory in South Korea as it shifts its focus toward EVs.

On Monday, Hyundai said it will temporarily suspend activities at its Asan plant in South Korea.

According to Hyundai’s regulatory filing, the suspension will take place between Dec 31, 2023 – Feb 13, 2024. The company will resume operations the following day.

Despite headlines claiming EV demand is slowing, Hyundai is charging ahead. Senior leaders told Reutersahead of the LA Auto Show earlier this month that they are still seeing strong demand for their electric vehicles. 

“I am still very bullish on the battery electrics,” explained Jose Munoz, Hyundai’s global president, highlighting that EV sales doubled year-over-year.

Hyundai raced past Ford and GM in the third quarter, placing second in the US EV market. Registration data from Automotive News shows Hyundai and sister company Kia claimed 7.5% of the market.

Although Tesla still dominates the market (57.4%), Hyundai’s IONIQ 5 and Kia’s EV6 set new October sales records last month.

Hyundai’s growth comes despite not qualifying for the IRA’s EV tax credit (only through leasing). The company has plans to change this.

“Based on what I see, I need more. If I had more capacity today, I could sell more cars.” Hyundai’s global leader said. After beginning construction on its first EV and battery plant in the US last October, Hyundai said 99.9% of the foundation work is complete.

Munoz said the company is “pushing as much as we possibly can to get it ready by October next year.”

Continue reading “What Slowdown? Hyundai Kicks EV Production into High Gear”

Look for a headline writer to tell us this is “Bad for Biden.”

US Energy Information Agency:

Sales of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery-electric vehicles (BEV) in the United States rose to 17.7% of new light-duty vehicle sales in third-quarter 2023, according to data from Wards Intelligence. Sales of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and BEVs have accounted for 15.8% of all new light-duty vehicle sales in the United States so far this year, compared with 12.3% in 2022 and 8.5% in 2021. 

The share of total light-duty vehicle sales for hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and BEVs rose due to both a decline in sales of non-hybrid gasoline- and diesel-fueled vehicles as well as an increase in sales of several existing BEV models. BEV prices declined across the most popular models, contributing to the rise in third-quarter sales. The average transaction price for BEVs dropped 5% during the third quarter to $50,283, bringing the price 24% lower than at the price peak in the second quarter of 2022. The average price paid for all light-duty vehicles fell less than 0.5% during that same time. BEV prices are now within $3,000 of the overall industry average transaction price for light-duty vehicles.

It’s a mistake to assume the materials we use for batteries, magnets, and other high tech applications today, will still be the standard in 10 years. Batteries are a classic lesson in the impacts of technology on commodities.
It’s been said, the cure for high prices, is high prices. Never more true than today.

Bloomberg:

Battery giants are starting to put their money on new sodium-based technology, a sign that there could be yet another shakeup in the industry that’s crucial for the energy transition.

Sodium — found in rock salts and brines around the globe — has the potential to make inroads into energy storage and electric vehiclesbecause it’s cheaper and far more abundant than lithium, which currently dominates batteries. But while chemically and structurally similar, sodium has yet to be used on a large scale, partly due to the better range and performance of similarly sized lithium cells.

That could be about to change. In the past week, Sweden’s Northvolt AB said it made a breakthrough with the technology, while Chinese EV maker BYD Co. signed a deal to build a $1.4 billion sodium-ion battery plant. China’s CATL already said in April that its sodium-based batteries will be used in some vehicles from this year.

“It’s serious investment,” said Rory McNulty, senior research analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “It’s creating a confidence boost with them saying we are here to continue scaling capacity to commercialize this technology.”

If sodium products do prove successful, they could curb lithiumconsumption. It’s also a reminder of the perils of trying to forecast metals usage in a constantly evolving industry as companies seek cheaper and more efficient cells.

While sodium-ion batteries’ low energy density means they’re unsuitable for larger EVs, they could increasingly be used instead of lithium in lower-end, shorter-range vehicles — or for power-grid energy storage, where size isn’t such an issue.

BloombergNEF has said that sodium should cut about 272,000 tons of lithium demand by 2035, or more than 1 million tons if lithium supplies can’t meet usage. 

Continue reading “Sodium Batteries Part of Lithium Price Slump”

People keep moving to climate high risk areas, coastal or inland flood plains, or wildland-urban interface areas.
Part of me says, “Well, have at it hoss.”
Another part of me says, we are all going to be paying for this, in increased insurance rates, higher infrastructure costs, and ultimately bailouts when inevitable disasters occur. But for how long?

Climate change is accelerating, with an increasing likelihood of widespread disruptions to the financial sector, including the insurance sector. – Bank for International Settlements

Bloomberg:

As insurers start to pull out from markets battered by the fallout of climate change, governments are increasingly at risk of having to foot the bill, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

“This trend, if left unabated, may lead to an insurance market failure for climate-related risks and ultimately force governments to become ‘insurers of last resort’,” researchers from BIS’s Financial Stability Institute said in a report.

Financial watchdogs are stepping up scrutiny of insurers to monitor the developing risks as the industry retreats from markets deemed too risky to cover. BIS researchers are urging the industry, governments and regulators to work together to ensure there’s adequate and affordable insurance to cover the extreme weather events ahead.

Most people don't understand what a 100-year storm means. It means that there's a 1% chance it will occur each year.

A better metric would be "chance during a 30-year mortgage".

For 100-year and 500-year events, this is 26% (1 in 4) and 6% (1 in 16).

— Andrew Dessler (@AndrewDessler) November 26, 2023

The finance industry is proving slow to address the risks posed by climate change to their operations, their capital, cash flows and customers. That’s as the absence of good-quality data means insurers face major hurdles in accurately estimating the losses they face.

“A major complicating factor is the uncertainty over future climate change impacts, which may unleash extreme events that have not occurred in the past for example due to climate tipping points,” the researchers said. “There could also be spillovers to other financial sectors — including the banking sector — if insurance is no longer available.”

What’s more, insurers aren’t generally making climate considerations explicit in their pricing and underwriting policies, according to the BIS report.

What is clear, though, is that a growing number of insurers is retreating from high-risk areas. The trend is likely to continue as insurers “gain greater awareness and knowledge in incorporating climate-related risks in their pricing and underwriting approaches,” the researchers said.

—–

Good, longer article in the New York Times spotlights the issue for the Carolina coast.

New York Times:

The hurricanes keep coming, and the people, too: The fastest-growing places along the Atlantic coast this century are also among the most hurricane-prone.

Between 2016 and 2022, the five hurricanes that hit the Carolinas cost the two states over $33 billion in damages in current dollars, displaced hundreds of thousands of people and led to the deaths of more than 90, government data shows.

There’s every reason to expect more damage in coming years: A warming climate adds moisture to the air, unlocking the potential for wetter and more powerful storms. And rising sea levels make storm surges more damaging and coastal flooding more frequent.

And the newcomers will keep coming: One 2022 study projected that by 2050, population growth will increase the number of Americans exposed to flooding nearly four times as much as climate change will alone.

Continue reading “How Long Will Taxpayers Subsidize Growth in Climate Risk Areas?”