The Polar Vortex has just begun to form for the 2022/2023 weather season, but it is already facing its first disruptive event. Strong pressure systems in the lower atmosphere will send energy upwards into the Stratosphere, affecting the Polar Vortex and disrupting its early development process.
These early disruption processes can have an important effect as we get closer to Winter. Weather is linked to the stratospheric Polar Vortex, especially during the Winter. So it matters in what shape or form the Polar Vortex is as we enter the season.
But besides directly affecting the Polar Vortex, the pressure anomalies in the next days/weeks will also put another process in motion that can be even more disruptive for the Winter polar circulation. You will see how having more snow in October can mean more snow and cold in the Winter.
Human-caused climate change is affecting hurricanes in many ways, making them more dangerous and increasing the devastation they cause. We see these factors in play with Hurricane Fiona, that left much of Puerto Rico without power and wreaked havoc on coastal towns in Newfoundland; Typhoon Noru that intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 overnight and made a direct hit on a Philippine island; and now with the impacts of Hurricane Ian on Florida.
Hurricanes are naturally-occurring events, and we are not seeing more of them today than we used to. However, climate change is making them:
Intensify faster Nature: Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.
Stronger overall Nature: Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and—taking into account an increasing coastal population—a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.
Slow down Nature: Here I show that tropical-cyclone translation speed has decreased globally by 10 per cent over the period 1949–2016, which is very likely to have compounded, and possibly dominated, any increases in local rainfall totals that may have occurred as a result of increased tropical-cyclone rain rates. The magnitude of the slowdown varies substantially by region and by latitude, but is generally consistent with expected changes in atmospheric circulation forced by anthropogenic emissions.
The latest far right-wing conspiracy theory: The “Deep State” used “weather manipulation” to create Hurricane Ian to punish red states. pic.twitter.com/UVIqfSbqOu
Hurricane Ian could cripple Florida’s already-fragile homeowners insurance market. Experts say a major storm like Ian could push some of those insurance companies into insolvency, making it harder for people to collect on claims.
Since January 2020, at least a dozen insurance companies in the state have gone out of business, including six this year alone. Nearly 30 others are on the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation’s “Watch List” because of financial instability.
“Hurricane Ian will test the financial preparedness of some insurers to cover losses to their portfolios, in particular smaller Florida carriers with high exposure concentrations in the impacted areas,” Jeff Waters, an analyst at Moody’s Analytics subsidiary RMS and a meteorologist, told ABC News. Waters said Florida is a peak catastrophe zone for reinsurers, and those with exposure will likely incur meaningful losses.
The new research assesses Greenland’s future through a simpler method. It tries to calculate how much ice loss from Greenland is already dictated by physics, given the current Arctic climate.
An ice sheet — like an ice cube, but at a vastly larger scale — is always in the process of melting, or growing, in response to the temperature surrounding it. But with an ice body as large as Greenland — picture the entire state of Alaska covered with ice that is one to two miles thick — adjustment takes along time. This means that a loss can bealmost inevitable, even if it has not actually happened yet.
Still, the ice sheet will leave clues as it shrinks. As it thaws, scientists think the change will manifest itself at a location called thesnow line. This is the dividing line between the high altitude, bright white parts of the ice sheet that accumulate snow and mass even during the summer, and the darker, lower elevation parts that melt and contribute water to the sea. This line moves every year, depending on how warm or cool the summer is, tracking how much of Greenland melts in a given period.
The new research contends that in the current climate, the average location of the snow line must move inward and upward, leaving a smaller area in which ice would be able to accumulate. That would yield a smaller ice sheet.