Month: September 2022

China’s Water Crisis has Global Implications

A personal account from a westerner in China of this summer’s heat and drought event brought home to many the magnitude of climate’s threat to China’s economy, and possibly a glimpse into our climate future.

Mathew Bossons in New York Times:

But the heat wave that baked China for weeks was startling in its scale, duration and intensity. Through July and August, it shattered temperature records, dried up rivers, withered crops, sparked wildfires and caused deaths from heatstroke. It may have been the most severe heat wave ever recorded.

And it laid bare frightening realities about how humanity is expected to adapt.

With temperatures as high as 113 degrees Fahrenheit, electricity usage soared as hundreds of millions of Chinese switched on air-conditioners. But where was that power supposed to come from? Severe drought had dried up the rivers on which the country depends for much of its clean hydroelectricity, crippling output.

This forced China, which pumps more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than any other nation, to double down on carbon-belching coal to make up the power shortfall. The heat wave had created a vicious cycle that, if replicated across the globe during future extreme weather events, will deeply complicate efforts to combat some of the worst effects of climate change.

In Sichuan, the majestic, raging mountain rivers that we had anticipated were no more: The hot, dry weather had reduced them to a trickle, and the deep swimming holes that we had picked out on the internet barely had enough water to reach my knees. Our hopes of gathering around a campfire each night were dashed by a ban imposed to limit wildfire risks in the bone-dry landscape.

Driving back out of the relative cool of the mountains, we were hit by the full force of the heat wave. Vast stretches of the country’s central, southern and southwestern lowlands sweltered.

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Bigotry and Climate Denial Historically Joined at the Hip

I know, I’ve been beating this drum for a while, but most journalists still don’t get that this complex of symptoms is one deadly syndrome.

Above, America’s best known bigot and conspiracy theorist, Alex Jones, on 9/11.
Jones went on to become a leading voice of climate denial, see below the jump.

Here below, a new tweet from Meshawn Maddock, Co-Chair of the Michigan Republican Party, who manages to include anti-gay hatred, and (obviously internalized) Misogyny with minimizing climate risks.

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California’s Heat Wave “Historic”

Massive Rain Event in Chicago

Block Club Chicago:

A torrential rainstorm Sunday morning inundated streets, caused cars to stall and water pipes to burst across the city, leaving hundreds of Chicagoans with flooded basements and entire blocks under water.

Residents have reported up to 6 inches of water in their basements and impassable intersections on the North Side, including in Lincoln Square, Albany Park, Portage Park, Uptown, Edgewater and Ravenswood. 

Billy Strings: Interview and “John Deere Tractor”

Worth your time.
You’ll see why I chose the song.

I’ll be heading to the Wheatland Music Festival this weekend, for a day and night anyway. It’s held in Remus, Michigan, about 30 miles north of where Billy grew up, and it’s the heart of a quietly passionate music and cultural scene in the state.

California Meeting Grid Challenge that Texas Failed. Here’s Why.

https://twitter.com/cdespinosa/status/1567699624286388224?s=20&t=6iRH3GKf9OEn9wLwu5BCTw

John Raymond Hanger, Former Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commissioner, on Twitter:

California effectively answers, by keeping electricity service intact, the usual politically inspired attacks on it as well as kneejerk criticism that follows issuing of flex alerts during its 9-day brutal heatwave. Not every electric system would have done as well. 

Let’s be clear that the issuing of flex alerts is no horror. It is both comical and tragic to see the usual political suspects attack California, but not Texas, for asking consumers to think of themselves and others by voluntarily conserving electricity at moments of grid stress. 

California kept its electricity service intact, because it has done a lot right. It has among the strongest energy efficiency standards in America, without which rolling blackouts would have happened. It’s not an electricity island but regionally connected, able to import/export 

California built rapidly about 3.8GWs of battery storage, all of it vital to keep service intact. It kept available and used some natural gas plants that had previously been scheduled for retirement. And Diablo Canyon nuclear plant proved its worth in California’s days of need. 

The California legislature and Governor Newsom were quickly proved right to pass legislation and to provide a $1.4 billion state loan to keep Diablo Canyon open. Indeed, it should remain open for longer than an additional five years, for global temperatures continue to climb. 

Then the millions of Californians who voluntarily conserved energy are signs of strength, not weakness, The information shared by leaders of California and CAISO with the public credits them. The action of the public in response credits millions of Californians. Well done! 

Lastly, California meets the challenge to adjust & learn. It’s learning lessons and recognizes its electric system, like all power systems, must be improved continually. It needs another 5GWs of battery storage ASAP, transmission upgrades, and more. But well done @California_ISO 

Below, analysis from the Houston Chronicle.

Houston Chronicle:

As Californians brace for another afternoon of triple-digit temperatures, the state’s grid operator has asked residents to conserve power for the ninth-straight day.

That California’s grid is on the brink of emergency conditions during a heat wave has sparked a flurry of conversations on Twitter, with folks both criticizing and praising the state’s response. Others have compared the response and situation to Texas’ recent electricity woes.

Famed newscaster Dan Rather, a native Texan, noted: “There was an unusual weather event in California and Governor Newsom asked residents to pitch in during a moment of crisis. People responded for the good of the community. The crisis passed with the electricity still on. Is a better model what we experienced in Texas?”

But while the situation facing California differs in many ways to what Texas dealt with during the February 2021 freeze, some issues faced by both the California Independent System Operator and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas are remarkably similar. Here’s a look at the differences and similarities of the two states’ power landscapes. 

Continue reading “California Meeting Grid Challenge that Texas Failed. Here’s Why.”

The Future for Fossil Fuels: Euthanasia or Hospice?

Elizabeth Kubler-Ross classically defined the stages of grief 50 years ago – Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.
We’ve known for decades that the fossil fuel industry as we know it has to go away for the planet to live. The industry’s response has been stuck in the “Denial” stage for too long. Some indications lately that we are oscillating between “anger” and “bargaining”.
University of Michigan Business prof Andrew Hoffman uses the metaphor of hospice care to investigate the process of putting the fossil industry down as humanely as possible. Obviously, extricating society from an enterprise that has been woven so tightly into our cultural, industrial, and economic system over a century is going to be traumatic. It’s time we thought more deeply about it.

Dr. Hoffman is the Holcim Professor of Sustainable Enterprise at the University of Michigan.

Andrew Hoffman PhD in Stanford Social Innovation Review:

History has marked the repeated demise of once thriving sectors because of the competitive forces of what Joseph Schumpeter termed “creative destruction,” 20 where the market “incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.” The typewriter industry disappeared with the rise of personal computers, and the incandescent-lightbulb industry has dimmed as more energy-efficient lighting alternatives, such as compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) and light-emitting diodes (LEDs), have become more cost competitive.

Creative destruction has also forced individual companies to remake themselves. Finnish multinational Nokia was founded in 1865 as a paper mill and has since expanded into cable, rubber boots, tires, and ultimately telecommunications hardware and software. 3M began in 1902 as the Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company, making sandpaper and grinding wheels; today the firm makes a wide variety of products, such as personal protective equipment, window films, dental and orthodontic products, medical products, car-care products, health-care software, and Post-it Notes. But these examples represent adaptation to shifting market conditions, not entire sectors disappearing for non-market-related reasons.

We have also witnessed the end of specific sectors because of government regulation—such as legislation in the United States that banned DDT application in 1972, that gutted the asbestos industry in 1989, and that is poised to end the industry for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) today. But these sectors were not nearly as intertwined with the global economy and society as fossil fuels.21

Today, a vast physical, economic, and political network undergirds the oil, coal, gas, and related chemicals sector. It cannot simply be replaced without massive political, social, and technological disruption. So, instead of “creative destruction,” we face the challenge of managing “compassionate destruction,” in which we guide all the complex and expansive elements of the fossil-fuel sector through a just and orderly transition to a carbon-free economy.

Ever since coal-powered steam engines gave rise to the industrial revolution, fossil fuels have provided the energy that powers most of the world’s economic activity. While nuclear and renewable sources of energy are available, almost 80 percent of primary energy use still comes from carbon-based fuels, and ending it will not be easy. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns, “Divesting from entire sectors—or simply passing carbon-intensive assets from public markets to private markets—will not get the world to net zero.” Focusing solely on cutting supply and not reducing demand, he argues, will simply drive up energy prices and encourage more of a backlash against green-energy efforts.22But the complexity, centrality, and interconnectedness of fossil fuels in the economy creates a paradox. The demise of the sector must be carefully orchestrated, and that will take time. But the urgency compelled by changes already underway in the natural environment means that the endgame needs to be undertaken quickly.

The patient needs urgent care. To consider such care, we acknowledge that corporations have been endowed with certain rights and responsibilities historically enjoyed by human beings and ask the obvious follow-on question: If a corporation is a person, can a corporation be assisted in death just as a person can be? And, if so, how do we provide compassionate assistance and comfort to the dying patient, as well as to those affected by the passing? To negotiate these questions, we offer three different models for consideration.

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The Weekend Wonk: Europe’s Gas Crisis is Now

Fatih Birol in Financial Times (paywall):

There are three narratives in particular that I hear about the current situation that I think are wrong — in some cases dangerously so. The first is that Moscow is winning the energy battle. Russia is undoubtedly a huge energy supplier and the increases in oil and gas prices triggered by its invasion of Ukraine have resulted in an uptick in its energy income for now.

But its short-term revenue gain is more than offset by the loss of both trust and markets that it faces for many years to come. Moscow is doing itself long-term harm by alienating the EU, its biggest customer by far and a strategic partner. Russia’s place in the international energy system is changing fundamentally, and not to its advantage. This narrative also ignores the significant medium-term impacts of the tougher international sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas sector.

This particularly concerns its ability to produce oil and transport gas. A growing share of Russian oil production had been set to come from more complex oilfields, including offshore, Arctic or otherwise hard-to-recover resources. The absence of western companies, technologies and service providers as a result of sanctions presents substantial risks for the country’s capacity to exploit those resources. Russia was banking on liquefied natural gas as the main way to diversify its exports away from a heavy reliance on Europe.

Before its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s stated aim was to export 120mn-140mn tonnes of LNG a year by 2035, at least quadruple its current level. This appears a distant prospect without international partners and technologies. A homegrown liquefaction technology has been beset by difficulties and delays. Russia’s LNG expansion plans are now back on the drawing board.

The second fallacy is that today’s global energy crisis is a clean energy crisis. This is an absurd claim. I talk to energy policymakers all the time and none of them complains of relying too much on clean energy. On the contrary, they wish they had more. They regret not moving faster to build solar and wind plants, to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and vehicles or to extend the lifetime of nuclear plants. More low-carbon energy would have helped ease the crisis — and a faster transition from fossil fuels towards clean energy represents the best way out of it.

When people misleadingly blame clean energy and climate policies for today’s energy crisis they are, intentionally or not, moving the spotlight away from the real culprits — the gas supply crunch and Russia.

The third mistaken idea is that today’s energy crisis is a huge setback that will hinder us from tackling climate change. I don’t see it that way. This crisis is a stark reminder of the unsustainability of the current energy system, which is dominated by fossil fuels. We have the chance to make this a historic turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system. And this is already happening.

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Maps, Photos, Show America’s Car-Choked Cities

Eye Popping thread from Hayden Clarkin, (@the_transit_guy).

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