Above, Donald Trump’s assessment of Sea Level impacts.
Below, Putin smart, NATO dumb.
Month: February 2022
Music Break: Johnny Rivers – Where Have all the Flowers Gone?
In Ukraine, a viral video shows a local woman accosting Russian soldiers.
She tells them to put sunflower seeds in their pockets, so that when they die, flowers may bloom in the land.
Stories abound of lost Russian soldiers begging for gas and food. 17 18, 19 year olds.
At White Supremacist Conference, Cheers for Hitler, Putin, and Climate Denier Marjorie Taylor Greene
People used to tell me “Don’t say “climate denier”, because that makes people think you are drawing a comparison to Nazis and the Holocaust”.
Do we get it now?
At least Liz Cheney has the sense to call them out – and of course she’s being ridden out of her party.
Below, not long after, MTG furiously Moon-walked her AFPAC appearance and threw her hosts under the bus.
Continue reading “At White Supremacist Conference, Cheers for Hitler, Putin, and Climate Denier Marjorie Taylor Greene”Is This another War About Fossil Fuels? No. And Yes.
Reliably backasswards as always, Fox News Flagship Quisling Tucker “Rootin for Putin” Carlson blames “The Climate People” for Europe’s vulnerability and dependence on Russian Gas. Say what you will about nuclear plants, Germany, and Europe, depend on gas for space heating, something nuclear by itself does not address – only electrification – long advocated by said climate people, can solve. (see this post for more on that)
Is this really another war over fossil fuels?
No. Energy resources are not the focus of this threatened conflict. Vladimir Putin has a long history of territorial ambitions in former Soviet nations, which he made explicit this week, and of attempts to exert political control over Ukraine. Putin is said by supporters to be concerned over the possibility of Nato expansion, although many analysts say this is a pretext.
So the Ukraine crisis is not a war over resources, but it has many implications for resource use. Russia is effectively weaponising its dominance over European gas supply for political ends. Reducing reliance on Russian gas is an urgent necessity for the EU to reach net zero emissions, and would also diminish Putin’s political leverage over the EU.
It is also worth noting that in the longer term, as Europe weans itself off gas and pursues net zero emissions, the value of this political weapon will wane rapidly. Russia’s industries have never recovered from the fall of communism, and its economy is now based overwhelmingly on the export of fossil fuels, with much of the rest made up of energy-dependent mineral resources, such as iron, steel, aluminium and other metals, and some agriculture.
Four in 10 roubles accruing to Russia’s federal budget pre-pandemic came from oil and gas, which made up 60% of Russian exports in 2019. Kremlin strategists are therefore keenly aware that in the longer term the global move to net zero threatens the whole basis of Russia’s economy and global influence.
Historically, much of Europe was heavily dependent on coal for power and heating. Renewable energy generation has more than doubled since 2004, and reached 22% of final energy production in 2020.
However, at the same time the share generated from nuclear power has fallen, from about a third of the EU’s electricity in 1995 to about a quarter today. After the accident at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011, Germany’s then chancellor Angela Merkel announced an “Energiewende” – an energy shift – that would see all of the country’s reactors shut down.
This has increased Germany’s need for gas, and similar moves away from coal and towards lower emissions in other countries – including the UK, which despite North Sea gas production is a net importer of gas – have heightened the dependency.
Continue reading “Is This another War About Fossil Fuels? No. And Yes.”The geopolitical implications of this dependency, as well as the climate impacts, are now unignorable. Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate adviser, now with the Progressive Policy Institute in Washington DC, says: “It has taken the current crisis for Germany and the EU to recognise that its co-dependence on Russian gas is a geopolitical and climate nightmare from which they must finally awake. Reducing Russian gas reliance is a huge climate and moral imperative that Europe must prioritise.”
Music Break: DakhaBrakha, Ukranian musical quartet – NPR Concert
You’ve got to hear this.
The passion here would have made the Russians think twice before invading.
15 Reactors in Ukraine War Zone
I’m sure it’s fine.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unfolding in a nation with 15 atomic reactors operating near full capacity, exposing Europe’s second-biggest nuclear fleet to potential safety risks.
Monitors at the International Atomic Energy Agency said late Thursday in an email that they’re gravely concerned by the situation and remain in contact with Ukrainian nuclear-safety regulators. Reactors require steady supplies of electricity and water, both of which could be put at risk by military action.
Russian forces have already taken control of the defunct Chernobyl nuclear power plant, and the Defense Ministry in Moscow said it had reached an agreement with guards at the site to jointly ensure safety, according to an Interfax report Friday. It added that background radiation levels were within normal ranges.
The IAEA said there had been no damage to the structures at Chernobyl, which contain the residual radiation left over from the 1986 meltdown. The agency said it’s now focused on ensuring the safety and security of Ukraine’s operating plants.
“It is of vital importance that the safe and secure operations of the nuclear facilities in that zone should not be affected or disrupted in any way,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said. “The IAEA is closely monitoring developments in Ukraine with a special focus on the safety and security of its nuclear power plants.”
Ukraine is Europe’s second-biggest generator of nuclear power after France. Energoatom, the utility which runs its reactors, said in a statement that plant operations were stable even as Russia’s military incursion unfolded.
Continue reading “15 Reactors in Ukraine War Zone”“Ukraine is at war, people are dying, defenders are heroically repelling enemy attacks,” Energoatom said Friday on its website. “Our common goal is to ensure a reliable electricity supply, despite these difficult circumstances.”
Offshore Wind Bidding Reaches Gale Force
The Biden’s administration’s sale of offshore wind development rights off the coasts of New York and New Jersey continued to shatter records on Friday, reaching over $4 billion with one single block fetching over $1 billion.
The auction, which began on Wednesday, is the first offshore wind lease sale under U.S. President Joe Biden, who sees the expansion of the industry as a way to tackle climate change and create thousands of new jobs.
The U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), which oversees energy development in federal waters, offered six leases across 488,201 acres (197,568 hectares) between New York’s Long Island and New Jersey, an area known as the New York Bight.
By midday on Friday, total high bids on the six blocks amounted to $4.235 billion, according to the BOEM’s web site. That is more than three times the revenue received from all U.S. offshore oil and gas lease auctions over the past five years.
The website did not identify the companies competing for the leases, but approved bidders included entities controlled by Equinor ASA (EQNR.OL), Avangrid Inc (AGR.N), BP Plc and Electricite de France SA (EDF.PA), among others, according to government documents published last month.
Under the rules of the auction, each company can only win one lease.
“The high bids will benefit tax payers, as the money incurred will go to the U.S. Treasury,” BOEM spokeswoman Tracey Moriarty said.
Ben Storrow on Twitter, yesterday:
US offshore wind leasing, a brief history.
2015: 2 bidders for 2 leases. Combined winning bids $448,171
2016: 6 bidders, 1 lease. Winning bid $42 million
2018: 11 bidders, 3 leases. Combined bids $405 million.
2022 (so far): 25 bidders, 6 leases. Combined bids of $728 million
Follow the Oil – Supercut of Climate Denier Tucker Carlson “Rooting for Russia”
“I think we should probably take the side of Russia, if we have to choose between Russia and Ukraine. That is my view.” – Tucker Carlson
You can’t say it’s racist, which is normally the case. Ukrainians are overwhelmingly white and Christian.
It’s always the oil. Follow the oil.
Eighty years ago, when a dictator rose to power in Europe and invaded his neighbors, he found an ally in the United States. The dictator was Adolf Hitler, and his ally was Charles Coughlin, a popular radio host. Coughlin belittled democracy, defended the Nazis, and opposed America’s entry into the war, arguing that the movement to enlist the United States was a conspiracy on behalf of a sinister minority: Jews.
Today, a new demagogue has taken up Coughlin’s mantle: Fox News host Tucker Carlson.
Like Coughlin, Carlson has spewed venom for years. And, like Coughlin, he has gradually made his treachery, nihilism, and bigotry unmistakable. If anyone still thought there was an innocent explanation for his behavior, Carlson’s latest monologue, delivered on Tuesday night, rendered such generosity indefensible.
To begin with, Carlson mocked the idea that rolling tanks into another country was wrong. In the view of liberals, he joked, “Invading America is called ‘equity’”—apparently he was referring to illegal immigration—but “invading Ukraine is a war crime.” He delivered this line with scornful incredulity, ignoring the fact that Russia’s invasions of Ukraine—this is the second one in eight years—are indeed acts of war and violations of international law.
Carlson downplayed the putative moral differences between Russia, Ukraine, Canada, and the United States. He asked why Americans should side with Ukraine against Russia, since Ukraine was “not a democracy.” (Actually, on the Freedom House democracy scale, Ukraine gets a rating of 39 out of 100. Russia gets less than seven.) Carlson also ridiculed the notion that “dastardly old Vladimir Putin” is “much worse than Justin Trudeau,” the prime minister of Canada, who—according to Carlson’s absurd lie—has imposed “martial law” and reduced Canada to a “failed democrac[y].” Turning to his own country, Carlson denounced America’s current leaders, saying they “don’t care at all” about our country’s stated principles.
In his monologue and in a follow-up interview with former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Carlson promoted the slander—often featured in Russian state propaganda—that when American politicians talk about defending freedom or democracy, they’re really just serving their own commercial interests. He offered two explanations for the U.S. government’s support of Ukraine: corrupt financial ties between Ukraine and President Joe Biden and a secret plot to drive up energy prices. “Maybe expensive energy would be good for the many renewable deals their friends and donors are invested in,” he speculated—the “they” referring to Biden and other Democrats. In the interview with Gabbard, Carlson nodded along—“Right,” he interjected—as Gabbard accused the American “power elite” of betraying both “the American people” and “the Russian people.”
Continue reading “Follow the Oil – Supercut of Climate Denier Tucker Carlson “Rooting for Russia””Western governments hope to deter Putin’s aggression by threatening him with economic and—if he invades NATO countries—military consequences. Carlson is doing the opposite: He’s trying to deter American economic or military intervention by warning Americans that Russia would punish them. Putin “will respond” if America gets in his way, said Gabbard, “and it’s likely he’ll retaliate using cyber-attacks on our financial systems, our communication systems, on our basic infrastructure.” As she outlined these perils, Carlson chimed in: “Exactly.”
Reminder: For Trump, All Roads Lead to Putin
For the fossil fuel industry, national borders are a quaint fiction. Good to remember.
Gas as Weapon Means Europe Must Think Big
Above, Deborah Gordon of RMI – I interviewed her prior to the current conflict.
Nikos Tsafos is at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
How do you ensure energy security against an enemy?
Europe bought energy from the Soviets during an era of managed rivalry. It bought energy from a weak Russia in the 1990s, and handled occasional flareups during Russia’s resurgence in the 2000s and 2010s. But this is new.
Few of the scenarios or strategies that Europe has used to secure its energy needs are designed for the world that we woke up to today. The European energy security toolkit is premised on a geopolitical balance that has been totally upended.
The war will reshape Europe’s tolerance for relying on Russian energy. No doubt. Eventually it will rewire the Eurasian energy system. But this is years away. How can Europe safeguard its energy system now?
Europe needs bold ideas.
How about a European Defense Production Act to make and install 100 million heat pumps?
How do you break the link between gas and power prices?
Do you pay suppliers to boost gas supply for a while?
Pay industries to not consume gas?
Think big.
In the end, Europe must also accept that energy security is often achieved through means that have nothing to do with energy.
You cannot fight tanks and helicopters with money and rules. Only raw military force can do that.
Sooner or later energy security is just security.
The punishing sanctions that the United States and European Union have so far announced against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine include shutting the government and banks out of global financial markets, restricting technology exports and freezing assets of influential Russians. Noticeably missing from that list is a reprisal that might cause Russia the most pain: choking off the export of Russian fuel.
Continue reading “Gas as Weapon Means Europe Must Think Big”The omission is not surprising. In recent years, the European Union has received nearly 40 percent of its gas and more than a quarter of its oil from Russia. That energy heats Europe’s homes, powers its factories and fuels its vehicles, while pumping enormous sums of money into the Russian economy.