Month: September 2017

Update from 13News Now Meteorologist Tim Pandajis, Norfolk Va, who’s become a bit of a Geek Hero during the recent wild weather..

ThinkProgress:

A study released Friday by Metstat, a weather-analysis company specializing in “detailed precipitation analysis” and “weather frequency analysis,” found that Harvey delivered a stunning once-in-25,000-year deluge over much of southeast Texas.

Some places saw an unimaginable once-in-500,000-year deluge, which translates to a 0.0002 percent chance of this deluge occurring in any given year. Probabilities that extreme “are calculated by extrapolating the distribution curves for precipitation observed over the last century,” Metstat’s Shauna Bokn explained.

Since global warming has been making extreme precipitation events more likely, however, the U.S. won’t have to wait 25,000 years to witness the next event of Harvey’s proportion. That’s especially true the longer the country is forced to reckon with President Donald Trump’s effort to undermine domestic and global climate action.

You may have read that Hurricane Harvey was a once-in-a-1000 year storm. It turns out that’s true if you look only at the highest one-day rainfall total.

But what made Harvey a truly off-the-charts storm is that it stalled in place for days while maintaining much of its strength. This led to five-day rainfall totals that blew past the previous all-time record for the continental United States of 48 inches. The National Weather Service recorded an astonishing total of 51.88 inches of rain in Cedar Bayou, Texas.

“Many textbooks have the 60-inch mark as a once-in-a-million-year recurrence interval,” the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang pointed out in late August. (Thankfully, Houston’s rainfall totals didn’t reach that mark.)

To do its analysis, MetStat used an approach based on “average recurrence intervals” — essentially, how long we would expect to have to wait for a Harvey-level deluge to occur again in a given area, based on historical rainfall records.

Continue reading “Post Storm DC: Deflect, Distract, Deny”

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Take action. Don’t listen to those who say you can just “ride this out'”.

More Tom the Dancing Bug here.

I posted yesterday on a massive nuclear power deal involving Saudis and Russians, that former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn had curiously failed to disclose. Rachel Maddow has a good synthesis of that from last night — meat starts at 8:49 if you’re pressed.

I point this out because it bears on the very significant swamp of difficulties that a global nuclear program to combat climate change is up against.  I’m all for continuing research on “next generation” nuclear plants that, purportedly, have no utility in manufacturing nuclear weapons, but for now, the technologies are inseparable, else why the big hubbub about Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear options?

Current nuclear technology is unique in that it cannot exist outside of a highly capital intensive, and secretive, nexus of global industrial and military interests. As such, it is a magnet for the type of activities for which General Flynn is currently in deep legal jeopardy.

In addition, it is relevant because I believe that climate, and the emerging “carbon bubble”,  is the essential subtext for the entire Trump/Russia scandal, the reason that Vladimir Putin, on behalf of his gang of Fossil Fueled oligarchs, would take such an enormous risk and intervene in the US political system – continued exploitation of fossil fuels is critical to his huge fortune, and the fortunes of his Russian Mafia circle.

Just Security:

Q. Refusing to comply with a congressional subpoena doesn’t look great. What do you think Flynn’s strategy is? What’s his cost-benefit analysis here?

A. There are lots of reasons to try to avoid asserting the Fifth Amendment in highly scrutinized and politicized cases such as the Russia investigations. While the privilege is designed to protect both the guilty and the innocent from prosecutorial overreach, it comes with great reputational damage in fact. In my best judgment as an observer, two things are informing Flynn’s strategy: (1) he faces a clear and present likelihood of indictment for at least a False Statements felony under 18 USC 1001. and (2) Flynn has already had his lawyer publicly signal his intent to assert the Fifth. Reputational damage has already been priced into Flynn’s defense team’s calculations. At this point, the whole game for Flynn is avoiding conviction and jail time.

Q. Does Special Counsel Robert Mueller have tools to compel testimony not available to congressional investigators?

A. Like Congress, Mueller can offer immunity. Unlike Congress, however, a prosecutor also use charging decisions as leverage for testimony and or plea bargains. For example, let’s say Mueller’s grand jury had probable cause to indict Flynn for, say, a Logan Act violation, three FARA criminal offenses, and two False Statement offenses. Mueller could offer to proceed with only a single felony count of False Statements in return for a guilty plea and a favorable sentencing recommendation predicated on substantial assistance to the government, including testimony before Congress and the Grand Jury. Continue reading “More on Trump/Russia/Flynn Nuclear Deal”

Despite all the talk about “new” nuclear (not like that old nuclear) technology, supposedly resistant to would-be bomb makers, existing nuclear technology remains eminently weaponizable. That stubborn fact is at the heart of a new story that entwines energy, the Middle East, nuclear proliferation, possible treason, and the Russian attack on American democracy.

File this under “Must Have Seemed Like a Good Idea to Somebody”.

ABCNews:

Democrats in Congress believe retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn illegally concealed more than a dozen foreign contacts and overseas trips during the process of renewing his security clearances, omissions they considered so serious they forwarded their findings to special counselRobert Mueller.

“It appears that General Flynn violated federal law by omitting this trip and these foreign contacts from his security clearance renewal application in 2016 and concealing them from security clearance investigators who interviewed him as part of the background check process,” Reps. Elijah Cummings and Eliot L. Engel, both Democrats, wrote in a letter to Flynn’s attorney obtained by ABC News on Tuesday.

Newsweek:

That the oil-rich, sun-soaked Arab Middle East would pursue nuclear energy seems paradoxical. But as The Economist noted in 2015, “Demand for electricity is rising, along with pressure to lower carbon emissions; nuclear plants tick both boxes.” And some of the region’s major players, like Egypt and Jordan, don’t have oil and gas resources and “want nuclear power to shore up the security of their energy supplies,” The Economist said.

So the genius idea the Americans advocated was a U.S.-Russian partnership to build and operate plants and export the dangerous spent fuel under strict controls. Flynn’s role would be helping X-Co/Iron Bridge design and implement a vast security network for the entire enterprise, according to an internal memo by ACU Strategic Partners, one of the lead companies involved, obtained by Newsweek.

Continue reading “Trump/Russia Investigation Sheds Light on the Sticky Problem of Nuclear Proliferation”

Fortunately,  I keep track.

 

 

 

 

 

China is enacting a price on Carbon. Now they will be banning Combustion engines.

Don’t ever let anyone pull the “..but China” nonsense anymore.

Los Angeles Times:

China plans to ban new vehicles powered by gasoline and diesel engines. The implications for the global auto industry run deep.

The move is spun as an environmental story. But it’s a major economic story as well.

China will set a deadline for carmakers to stop selling cars that run exclusively on gasoline or diesel fuel. The news was announced over the weekend by Xin Guobin, the country’s industry and information technology vice minister.

No date was given, but earlier this year Britain and France each vowed to implement such a ban by 2040. Several other European countries and India have announced their own versions, pressured in part to reduce greenhouse gases under the international Paris accord on climate.

 

China, which is still the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is trying to recast itself as a global leader of environmental initiatives. Its president, Xi Jinping, has become one of the Paris accord’s most vocal advocates.

The country has another aim too. In 2010, it made clear its long-term intent to become the No. 1 nation in electric vehicle sales.

“The China market itself is pretty gigantic,” said Bill Hampton, AutoBeat Daily publisher. “This will push the China market along very quickly and certainly could create a powerhouse for exports and propel China into the global electric vehicle market.”

“Chinese regulators see the success of Tesla and other Californian companies, and want to promote the same success amongst Chinese car manufacturers,” said Sophie Lu, Beijing-based China research head for Bloomberg New Energy Finance, which analyzes energy markets.

The move could affect automakers’ corporate strategy, capital spending, trade policy and intellectual property sharing. Some analysts say the plan could further inflame trade tensions between China and the Trump administration.

In an opinion piece in Automotive News China, Michael Dunne of Dunne Automotive in Hong Kong said Monday that new regulations probably will be “designed to give China a decisive upper hand in the market for electric vehicles.”

Continue reading “China Dead Serious: Dominate Electrical Vehicles/Renewable Revolution”

Post-Irma: Conservative commentator flails wildly to maintain the tribal identity from which her income derives.

If you find yourself saying “…I’m not a climate denier, but…” – You’re probably a climate denier.

This has been going on for 40 years. Deniers, increasingly aware they are boxed in, are unable to walk back decades of willful ignorance. Not-so hilarious hilarity ensues.

Vox:

It is difficult to appreciate, from up close and with so much else going on, just how deeply and ceaselessly bizarre US climate politics has become. Limbaugh is a good case study, but he’s not the only one. Several bits of recent news — for instance, Trump’s nomination of a climate denier with no science credentials to lead NASA — serve to illustrate the same point. American climate politics have gone from frustrating and weird to … parody? Farce? Reductio ad absurdum? It’s difficult to know the right term. But it ain’t healthy.

The two consistent trends of the era of climate politics

Though it’s somewhat arbitrary, I date the era of US climate politics back to June 1988, when NASA climate scientist James Hansen testified to Congress about climate change. Scientists had known about the greenhouse effect for a long while, but that is the moment when the subject entered US politics in earnest.

Continue reading “Up Denial Without a Paddle: Post-Irma Climate Denial Nutbags Part 2”

Solar Tribune:

Amid all of this uncertainty, a growing number of farmers are embracing the opportunity to harvest a different kind of crop – the sun. Solar energy offers farmers a level of stability, profitability, and versatility that is especially attractive.

The rapid innovation that has occurred in the solar sector over the past several years has led farmers to embrace numerous cost-effective applications of solar energy on their lands. Photovoltaic systems are being used by crop and livestock farmers to provide electric power for water pumping, small-scale irrigation systems, electric fencing, building lighting, livestock building ventilation, and much more.

Solar thermal systems are a similarly cost-effective method for farmers looking to use renewable energy sources to streamline their operations. Solar hot water heating systems are used by livestock farmers for pen cleaning purposes, and in particular, by dairy farmers who have substantial water heating and milk cooling demands.

The growing solar trend on America’s farmlands is a financial no-brainer for farmers otherwise accustomed to unpredictable revenue streams.

Of particular note, a 2017 report by the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Associationfound that solar installations in North Carolina generate 30% of the income of an average farm while occupying about 20% of the land. Additionally, typical annual rent payments for farmland by solar companies range from $500 to $1,400 per acre in North Carolina, while the average 2015 rent for crop and pasture land ranged from just $27 to $102 per acre.

Connecticut Post:

SIOUX CITY, Iowa (AP) — Dolf Ivener wants to help the planet and revolutionize the way farmers power their farms.

The Sioux City businessman and fifth-generation farmer, who oversees operations outside of Hinton and Whiting, Iowa, recently launched Hog Power Energy.

The new company aims to help pork producers reduce electricity costs in confinements through the use of renewable energy created via a self-contained solar generator system developed and tested by Ivener.

Essentially, it gives producers a chance to implement a microgrid system to a confinement that would lessen but not completely eliminate their dependence on utilities and offset their electricity costs by $300-$500 a month, according to Ivener’s estimates. Continue reading “Distributed Energy a No Brainer for Farmers”

“The way of fools seems right to them,
    but the wise listen to advice.” – Proverbs 12

Apparently there is, indeed, nothing new under the sun, as the writer of Proverbs seems to have been familiar with the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Vox:

As Hurricane Irma, a tempest exacerbated by climate change, ravaged the Florida coast on Monday as a tropical storm, Pope Francis doubled down on his condemnations of those who choose to ignore the mounting evidence of the impacts of global warming.

Responding to questions from an Italian journalist on board his flight home from Colombia, Francis said that the halting response to climate change reminded him of a “phrase from the Old Testament — man is a fool, a stubborn man who will not see”: an apparent reference to Proverbs 12, a section of the Bible that condemns those who resist correction in matters of knowledge.

Later, he added in a more pointed jab at climate deniers: “Anyone who denies [climate change] should go to the scientists and ask them. They speak very clearly … climate change is having an effect, and scientists are telling us which path to follow. And we have a responsibility — all of us. Everyone, great or small, has a moral responsibility … we must take it seriously … history will judge our decision.”

His words were direct, but hardly new. Earlier this month, Francis released a joint statement with Eastern Orthodox Patriarch Bartholomew condemning apathy toward environmental issues, criticizing “[our current] morally decaying scenario where our attitude and behavior toward creation obscures our calling as God’s co-operators.”

In that statement, Francis echoed several themes of his papacy, including his deep suspicion of unbridled capitalism and its role in harming the environment, saying: “Our propensity to interrupt the world’s delicate and balanced ecosystems, our insatiable desire to manipulate and control the planet’s limited resources, and our greed for limitless profit in markets — all these have alienated us from the original purpose of creation. We no longer respect nature as a shared gift; instead, we regard it as a private possession. We no longer associate with nature in order to sustain it; instead, we lord over it to support our own constructs.”

Continue reading “The Way of the Fool: Pope Francis on Climate Denial Post Irma”