Know Your Meme: Godwin’s Law is an internet adage that is derived from one of the earliest bits of Usenet wisdoms, which goes “if you mention Adolf Hitler or Nazis within a discussion thread, you’ve automatically ended whatever discussion you were taking part in.”
When I first named this blog and the eponymous video series, I was told not to use “denier” in referring to climate deniers – because the connection to Neo-nazi holocaust denial might upset someone. Now of course, everyone uses the D-word, because experience shows – it fits.
Tomas Regalado, the Republican mayor of Miami, has endorsed Rubio but via the debate’s host Jake Tapper he questioned whether the senator accepted the mainstream scientific position on climate change and his commitment to combat the problem.
Rubio said Regalado is a “great mayor and a good friend” but said that any laws to reduce emissions would drive up power bills in Miami and cause the mayor a political headache.
Philip Levine, mayor of neighboring Miami Beach, said Rubio was “100 percent using the language of a climate change denier” and has overlooked the escalating problem of sea level increases for south Florida.
Miami Beach has already spent $100 million on new sea defenses to curb the regular flooding of its western half. Sea levels are expected to rise in south-east Florida by six to 10 inches by 2030, with ever increasing levels throughout the century unless greenhouse gases are severely cut. These increases risk inundating large areas of the region, with 2.4 million people living within 4ft of the local high tide line.
“Unfortunately, Senator Rubio went to his usual talking points, fed to him by his donors in the sugar and energy industry,” said Levine. “According to him, America shouldn’t be a leader in the greatest challenge of our generation. If he were around during World War II, he’d want us to sit on the sidelines and leave Britain to its fate.
“He made the amazing statement that America is not a planet. I’m sure he had to go onto Wikipedia to get that information. He said he’s all for making cities resilient but he’s done absolutely nothing as a US senator for us, he’s never come to Miami Beach to meet with us. The only time he comes down here is for a fundraiser.”
On Saturday, NASA dropped a bombshell of a climate report. February 2016 has soared past all rivals as the warmest seasonally adjusted month in more than a century of global recordkeeping. NASA’s analysis showed that February ran 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 1951-1980 global average for the month, as can be seen in the list of monthly anomalies going back to 1880. The previous record was set just last month, as January 2016 came in 1.14°C above the 1951-1980 average for the month. In other words, February has dispensed with this one-month-old record by a full 0.21°C (0.38°F)–an extraordinary margin to beat a monthly world temperature record by. Perhaps even more remarkable is that February 2015 crushed the previous February record–set in 1998 during the peak atmospheric influence of the 1997-98 “super” El Niño that’s comparable in strength to the current one–by a massive 0.47°C (0.85°F).
Because there is so much land in the Northern Hemisphere, and since land temperatures rise and fall more sharply with the seasons than ocean temperatures, global readings tend to average about 4°C cooler in January and February than they do in July or August. Thus, February is not atop the pack in terms of absolute warmest global temperature: that record was set in July 2015. The real significance of the February record is in its departure from the seasonal norms that people, plants, animals, and the Earth system are accustomed to dealing with at a given time of year. Drawing from NASA’s graph of long-term temperature trends, if we add 0.2°C as a conservative estimate of the amount of human-produced warming that occurred between the late 1800s and 1951-1980, then the February result winds up at 1.55°C above average. If we use 0.4°C as a higher-end estimate, then February sits at 1.75°C above average.
Either way, this result is a true shocker, and yet another reminder of the incessant long-term rise in global temperature resulting from human-produced greenhouse gases. Averaged on a yearly basis, global temperatures are now around 1.0°C beyond where they stood in the late 19th century, when industrialization was ramping up. Michael Mann (Pennsylvania State University) notes that the human-induced warming is even greater if you reach back to the very start of the Industrial Revolution. Making matters worse, even if we could somehow manage to slash emissions enough to stabilize concentrations of carbon dioxide at their current level, we are still committed to at least 0.5°C of additional atmospheric warming as heat stored in the ocean makes its way into the air, as recently emphasized by Jerry Meehl (National Center for Atmospheric Research). In short, we are now hurtling at a frightening pace toward the globally agreed maximum of 2.0°C warming over pre-industrial levels.
The new global temperature graphs from this week are causing gasps across the scientific community. I’m reposting here my 2014 interviews with Kevin Trenberth and Gerald Meehl, who both spoke about the possibility of a “step change” in global temperatures, somehow initiated by large El Nino events, such as what we saw in 1998, and this year.
Worth showing to anyone who thinks scientists do not have a handle on the basic physics of climate.
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Above, my interview with Kevin Trenberth in 2014. We agreed that if certain predictions came true, that I’d make sure the video got recirculated – and with today’s new announcement by the UK Met Office, a burgeoning El Nino in the Pacific, and 2015 looking like the warmest year ever – blowing the doors off 2014 – now is that time.
Dr. Trenberth spoke about large cycles in the Pacific that are part of natural variability, and how the ocean has tended in recent years to take more heat into greater depths, where it can not show up on surface temperature measurements.
Dr. Trenberth further predicted, starting at about 9:00 above, that a new El Nino event, if strong enough, like the one we are seeing now, would jumpstart the kind of warming trend that we saw between the mid-70s and 1998.
El Nino years tend to be hotter.
Recent measurements show that the current El Nino is looking a lot like the 1998 mega-event.
In a recent piece in Science magazine, Trenberth expanded on the idea, with a helpful graph showing the “stepwise” motion of global mean surface temperatures, (GMST) with the swings of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. (PDO)
He wrote:
The main pacemaker of variability in rates of GMST increase appears to be the PDO, with aerosols likely playing a role in the earlier big hiatus. There is speculation whether the latest El Niño event and a strong switch in the sign of the PDO since early 2014 (see the figure) mean that the GMST is stepping up again. The combination of decadal variability and a trend from increasing greenhouse gases makes the GMST record more like a rising staircase than a monotonic rise. As greenhouse gas concentrations rise further, a negative decadal trend in GMST becomes less likely ( 13). But there will be fluctuations in rates of warming and big regional variations associated with natural variability. It is important to expect these and plan for them.
Dr. Trenberth further predicted, in 2013, that an anticipated large El Nino might trigger a phase change in the Pacific Decadal oscillation, and a new step up in global temperatures. This seems to be playing out now.
In a 2014 interview, Trenberth’s colleague at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Gerald Meehl, spoke about the contributions of natural variability to the perception of “pause” in surface temperature. The interviews taken together give a strong impression of how well the senior climate scientists have understood and anticipated the dynamics of global temperature, even with the unpredictability of internal cycles like El Nino and PDO. Continue reading “Reposting: Scientists Predicted Jump in Temperatures”
Dr. David Mitlin, the head researcher of a group working on supercapacitors at the University of Alberta in Canada says that their project turning hemp fibers into a graphene substitute is about one thousand times cheaper than making graphene. We have legions of electronic devices, and each one of those devices has a battery inside of it. Ever experience the frustration of fully charging your smartphone just to have it die a few hours later? Or need your electric car to drive more miles before the battery is completely drained? Then read on.
Let’s begin with how a basic capacitor works. A capacitor stores energy electrostatically in an electric field, i.e. a battery or electrical circuit. Capacitors store energy between plates, or the electrical conductors, which can be thin films of metal or even aluminum foil.
A supercapacitor is basically a capacitor on steroids. Something typically used as a supercapacitor is graphene, and graphene is known to conduct heat and electricity with superb efficiency. “Graphene,” explains Liming Dai, Director of the Center of Advanced Science and Engineering for Carbon at Case Western Reserve University, “is a single atomic layer of carbon sheets. You peel one layer away from graphite, you get graphene. Graphene has a huge surface area for capacity to store the charges and it gives you more charge to store on the surface.”
The American Chemical Society explains, “supercapacitors are energy storage devices that have huge potential to transform the way future electronics are powered. Unlike today’s rechargeable batteries, which sip up energy over several hours, supercapacitors can charge and discharge within seconds. But they normally can’t store nearly as much energy as batteries, an important property known as energy density. One approach researchers are taking to boost supercapacitors’ energy density is to design better electrodes.” And hemp, some think, could be that better electrode.
Getting graphite, the parent of graphene, is a pretty dirty business. Graphite has to be mined then chemically processed to make graphene. Dai says, “The peeled away layers of graphite use a very strong acid, like a sulfuric acid or nitric acid to oxidize the graphite to make the graphene sheet.” This acid application damages the structure, thereby losing electrical conductivity, not to mention utilizing a very harmful and environmentally unappealing chemical agent. “Hemp is a good replacement for this strong acidic process because you can produce graphene with more connective structure and a cheaper process.”
In addition to the unsavory chemical treatment, there is also the issue of graphite mining, currently a very big problem in energy-hungry and pollution-laden China where a lot of our electronics are produced. Ironically, graphite is in the batteries that power Tesla Model S cars, Toyota’s plug-in Prius, and other electric cars that promise zero emissions yet pollute China’s air and water, damage crops, and create unbearable smog. Also, graphite does not store energy nearly as well as graphene does, and graphene, says Dai, “is difficult to peel off. If you peel layer by layer of graphene out of graphite it is very tedious. And you cannot get high-yield production.” And this peeling-away process makes graphene very expensive to make. Continue reading “Yes! Sparking Up Cannabis Based Batteries.”
Above, Bloomberg New Energy Finance expert on solar energy in the developing world, where simple systems can be game changers. Below, new reports predicting record shattering growth in the US for 2016.
Bear in mind, the Energy Information Administration, which is quoted in the Washington Post here, has historically lowballed solar and renewable energy growth curves.
New statistics just released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration suggest that in the coming year, the booming solar sector will add more new electricity-generating capacity than any other — including natural gas and wind.
EIA reports that planned installations for 2016 include 9.5 gigawatts of utility-scale solar — followed by 8 gigawatts (or 8 billion watts) of natural gas and 6.8 gigawatts of wind. This suggests solar could truly blow out the competition, because the EIA numbers are only for large or utility-scale solar arrays or farms and do not include fast-growing rooftop solar, which will also surely add several additional gigawatts of capacity in 2016.
In other words, U.S. solar seems poised for not just a record year but perhaps a blowout year. Last year, in contrast, solar set a new record with 7.3 gigawatts of total new photovoltaic capacity across residential, commercial, and utility scale installations.
“If actual additions ultimately reflect these plans, 2016 will be the first year in which utility-scale solar additions exceed additions from any other single energy source,” says EIA.
For the first time ever utility-scale solar projects will add more new capacity to the nation’s grid than any other industry this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Tuesday.
Natural gas and wind energy follow somewhat closely, according to the EIA’s monthly report, which notes that solar, gas and wind energy will make up 93 percent of all new energy. Solar projects will generate about 9.5 gigawatts of new energy. Natural gas, meanwhile, will add 8 gigawatts while wind is poised to create 6.8 gigawatts.
One gigawatt is enough energy to power about 700,000 average homes.
Investing in coal is now on par with sanctioning child labour, according to JP Morgan Chase, one the world’s largest banks.
The US-headquartered multinational has announced it will no longer fund any new coal mines or plants in high income countries.
The high-carbon energy source is now listed alongside illegal logging, uncontrolled fire and forced or child labour as a ‘prohibited transaction’ by the bank, which holds assets of over $2 trillion.
“We believe the financial services sector has an important role to play as governments implement policies to combat climate change,” reads the bank’s environmental and social policy framework.
But, there is a but.
Funding for coal projects in developing countries will not be affected by the new rules, limiting its global impact. China, India, South Africa and Indonesia are among the world’s top coal consumers.
Ben Collins, senior campaigner at the Rainforest Action Network welcomed the decision, but urged the company to adopt tougher standards.
“In order to have a chance at stabilizing the climate, we need financial institutions to follow these commitments on coal mining with further steps to end coal financing altogether,” he said.
Still, the news will come as a further blow to a sector hit by crashing commodity process and a string of bankruptcies.
Reports from the US suggest Peabody Energy, the world’s largest private producer, is laying off staff and selling major mines as it struggles to stay afloat.
Continue reading “Trump Makes Disturbing Connection: Racists and Climate Deniers”
