Month: February 2014

Recent update.

I’ve gotten word from a contact in western UK, that he’s just had his roof blown off by gales.
I’m told I’ll have exclusive video soon, stay tuned.

Continuing the discussion on why climate change may be making our weather more variable and extreme.

Science published a letter yesterday from several key atmospheric scientists, including Dr. Kevin Trenberth, who should be well-known to readers of this series.

Briefly – the widely discussed link between arctic ice and jet stream instability is very much in play in the climate community – most of whom agree that we are in a “new normal”, but not all of whom are on board with an arctic ice connection.
Now’s a good time to review the video above, a discussion I mediated between Dr. Trenberth and Dr. Francis to air differing views on changing atmospheric circulation.
Excerpts from yesterday’s letter, and response from Francis, were posted by Andy Revkin in the Dot Earth blog.

Dot Earth:

In mid-January, a lobe of the polar vortex sagged southward over the central and eastern United States. All-time low temperature records for the calendar date were set at O’Hare Airport in Chicago [–16°F (–27°C), 6 January], at Central Park in New York (4°F (–15.6°C), 7 January], and at many other stations. Since that event, several substantial snow storms have blanketed the East Coast. Some have been touting such stretches of extreme cold as evidence that global warming is a hoax, while others have been citing them as evidence that global warming is causing a “global weirding” of the weather. In our view it is neither.

As climate scientists, we share the prevailing view in our community that human-induced global warming is happening and that, without mitigating measures, the Earth will continue to warm over the next century with serious consequences. But we consider it unlikely that those consequences will include more frigid winters.

Continue reading “Debating the Causes of Extremes”

Nation of Change:

The savings that wind energy provided for consumers last week likely tally in the millions if not tens of millions of dollars, as wind energy reduced consumers’ energy costs in several major ways. Wind energy always provides these savings for consumers, which is why more than a dozen state government, grid operator, and other studies have confirmed that wind energy reduces consumers’ electricity prices.
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However, these savings are further magnified when energy prices are high:

• Most directly, wind energy provided highly valuable electricity when PJM, the regional grid operator, needed it most. During the period of peak demand on Thursday evening, wind energy was providing PJM with 3,500 MW while electricity prices averaged more than $500 per MW hour (MWh), providing direct savings of $1.5 million to $2 million per hour.
• A potentially far larger impact is that wind energy helped to drive down the market price for all MWh of electricity that are being sold in the market, not just the wind MWh. Grid operators always use zero-fuel cost wind energy to displace output from the most expensive and least efficient power plants that are currently operating. This drives the electricity price for all market participants down, as the market price is now being set by a more efficient and less expensive power plant. Because the supply curve of generation options is typically extremely steep during periods of peak demand (see the illustration above), even a modest amount of additional supply greatly reduces the market electricity prices. Moreover, because this market price applies to all MWh sold in the market, not just the wind MWh, the savings are multiplied again.
• Through a similar mechanism, additional wind energy supply also reduces prices in natural gas markets, providing savings for all users of natural gas. During these times of peak demand, wind energy was primarily displacing gas use at natural-gas fired power plants. Many areas in the eastern U.S. were at or near record natural gas prices due to weather-driven demand for natural gas for building heating as well as electricity generation. Because the natural gas price curve is also quite steep during times of peak demand, and because the market price applies to all transactions in the market, wind energy likely produced large savings for all natural gas users by driving down the price of natural gas. So even if you primarily use natural gas to heat your home (in addition to electricity to run your furnace fans) you can thank wind energy for helping to keep your heating bill low.

One compelling illustration of these benefits came in a glowing press release from the Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD), describing how a large amount of wind energy output kept energy prices low for their customers during the cold snap two weeks ago. The utility explained that “Nebraskans benefit from NPPD’s diverse portfolio of generating resources. Using a combination of fuels means we deliver electricity using the lowest cost resources while maintaining high reliability for our customers.” The utility also noted that “NPPD did not operate its natural gas generation because the fuel costs were up more than 300 percent over typical prices.”

Continue reading “How Wind Power Holds Down Electric Prices During Extremes, and Every Other Time”

Thom Hartmann talks with Gretchen Bleiler, 2 time Olympian / Silver medalist / 5 time X Games medalist (4 Gold) / Spokesperson for Protect Our Winters (POW)

Climate scientists are not the only ones who are observing the impacts of global change. In addition to our elite athletes, farmers, hunters and fishermen know what is happening. In my own case, growing up outside on the waters of the Great Lakes, and on the slopes and trails every winter, the changes became very obvious to me even before James Hansen’s famous wake up call in 1988.

Jeff Masters on Sochi:

Thursday was another warm, sunny day in Sochi, Russia, home of this year’s Winter Olympics. The temperature rose to 62°–an unseasonably warm day for February. The unusual warmth caused numerous problems for skiers and snowboarders, and we can expect continued issues with excessive warmth as high temperatures rise into the low 60s again on Friday and Saturday. Beginning on Sunday, temperatures will cool down to more seasonable levels, with highs in the low 50s. Temperatures in the mountains above Sochi are typically 10 – 20 degrees colder than what are observed in the city. The New York Times has an interesting editorial, The End of Snow?, describing how a warming climate will make it increasingly difficult to hold Winter Olympics games.

Worthwhile discussion here on NPR’s Diane Rheam show with, among others, Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS.

The primal story of loss, retold creole style by Chuck Berry.

The internet’s total stupidity and arrogance index dipped a notch the other day with James Delingpole’s final blog column for the Telegraph.

Scurrilous and unkind rumors have it that Delingpole was becoming a liability and embarassment to the owners, and so got the boot.
Readers of this blog will remember Jame’s indelible performance in the video above, totally flummoxed by a simple question from Sir Paul Nurse, about trusting, or not trusting, the scientific method.

Although known for some of the nastiest, most hateful, and not surprisingly, most ill informed climate denial screeds in Trollville, Delingpole took an opportunity to remind his readers, in this last post, that he’s actually, well, as the clip above underlines, grossly ignorant.

“..Thanks for your technical expertise and advice (it prevented anyone ever noticing that I’m an English graduate and know NOTHING about science..”

…making him of course, eminently qualified in his field.

Especially pleased to include interviews with more scientists here from our AGU sessions in December, 2013.  Links with the unfolding dramas in California and the UK are obvious.

Headphones suggested.

RealClimate:

The amount of heat stored in the oceans is one of the most important diagnostics for global warming, because about 90% of the additional heat is stored there (you can read more about this in the last IPCC report from 2007).  The atmosphere stores only about 2% because of its small heat capacity.  The surface (including the continental ice masses) can only absorb heat slowly because it is a poor heat conductor.  Thus, heat absorbed by the oceans accounts for almost all of the planet’s radiative imbalance.

If the oceans are warming up, this implies that the Earth must absorb more solar energy than it emits longwave radiation into space. This is the only possible heat source. That’s simply the first law of thermodynamics, conservation of energy. This conservation law is why physicists are so interested in looking at the energy balance of anything. Because we understand the energy balance of our Earth, we also know that global warming is caused by greenhouse gases – which have caused the largest imbalance in the radiative energy budget over the last century.

If the greenhouse effect (that checks the exit of longwave radiation from Earth into space) or the amount of absorbed sunlight diminished, one would see a slowing in the heat uptake of the oceans. The measurements show that this is not the case.
Continue reading “The Next El Nino”

This year’s “unusual” storms have put a fine point on it, but planners in coastal areas have begun to grapple with the idea that many vulnerable coastal communities are simply not sustainable.  The concept is clear whether in tiny Welsh hamlets, or major metropolitan areas.

Guardian:

The government could see as much £4.3tn written off the value of properties in high flood-risk areas unless it rethinks the way insuranceand mortgages are going to be provided for such vulnerable areas.

Continue reading “A Dawning Realization: Retreat from Coastlines Inevitable”