We won’t know the full extent of the US drought for weeks, depending on how long the current dry spell lingers. As of now, we are in one of the ten driest years on record. Stay tuned.
Illinois State Climatologist Jim Angel:
People have asked me several times this week, “how much rain do we need to end the drought?”
There is no easy way to answer this. The normal rainfall per week in Illinois is about an inch. So we need that inch per week just to keep from slipping farther behind. Taking it a step farther, that means you need well over an inch per week to start recovering from drought. Of course, no amount of rain at this point will undo the damage done to crops already.
There is one product, based on the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, that attempts to answer this question. However, I would treat it as an estimate. Even so, it gives you an idea of how far we have to go for a recovery. They update this map once a month, so at the end of June we would have needed 9 to 12 inches of rain across much of Illinois in July to end the drought. That is a tall order. The wettest July on record for Illinois is 8.03 inches in 1958. Not to mention that July is almost half over.
Personally, I’m not sure it would take record-breaking rainfall. And I’m not sure we want 9 to 12 inches in one month because that could lead to all kinds of other problems like flooding and heavy soil erosion.
Based on past droughts in Illinois, a month with rainfall 50 percent above normal (around 6 inches) followed by several months with near-normal rainfall would be capable of turning things around without the more serious consequences of heavy rainfall.
the UK has a sever drought 6 months ago. Look at it now!
Too much rain….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/15/orchids-thrive-crops-fails-rain
Not fully covered in the video is the fact that corn is currently in its germination window. It started in early July in some regions and it’ll go until another week or so. It doesn’t matter how much it rains after that if the corn isn’t pollinated – it’ll just produce empty cobs. The following weeks will matter in those regions where pollination was successful.
Right now, the USDA is only predicting a lowered total yield of 15% or so – not very dramatic. But they’ve been increasing that loss estimate every week, and it’s likely to continue to do so.
An interesting part of the linked video is the end. Those regions that can’t afford the higher corn prices will feel the greatest effect. There has been a lot of thought going to the linkage between the rise in food prices and the Arab Spring revolts – especially Egypt.
Program for a New American Century: Full Spectrum Dominance. When we’re eff’d, you’re eff’d.
Hi pmagn,
Here’s a 5 day forecast for the Jet Stream over the North Atlantic. Looks like the UK is in for more of the same fine orchid weather over the period:
http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/jetstream_atl_model_fcst.html
Hopefully, these recent years have been outliers, but we certainly seem to have a streak going as far as crop yield reductions in key grain producing nations.
Just what is one to do otter17 ?
U.S. Corn-Crop Delays Signal Tightest World Supply Since 1974, Price Gains
By Jeff Wilson and Whitney McFerron – Jun 9, 2011 1:52 AM GMT+0700
Wet weather that delayed corn planting in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter, may send global inventories to their lowest in 37 years, signaling higher costs for consumers and livestock producers.
More than one-third of Midwest fields were planted after the mid-May target for optimal growth because of excessive rain, and Ohio farmers as of June 5 were the furthest behind since 1989, with 58 percent sown, government data show. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said June 6 that the disruptions increase the “potential for a shortfall.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-08/u-s-corn-crop-delays-signal-tightest-world-supply-since-1974-price-gains.html
Too much rain in 2011 and now too little rain in 2012.