The Unbearable Inefficiency of Fossil Fuels

The highly respected energy focused think tank Ember is out today with a slide deck and update on where we are in the energy transition.
Despite the efforts of the petrostates and global oligarchy to enforce an authoritarian rule of fossil fuels, markets continue to exert their irresistible gravitational pull.

Ember:

Humanity is graduating from burning fossil commodities to mastering manufactured technologies—from hunting scarce fossils to farming the inexhaustible sun, from consuming Earth’s resources to merely borrowing them. 

This isn’t a marginal climate substitution. It’s an energy revolution. 

The magnetic centre is the electron: we are revolutionising how we generate, use, and shift electrons. Solar and wind are conquering electricity supply. EVs, heat pumps, and AI are electrifying major new uses. Batteries and digitalisation are connecting supply and demand. 

Three reinforcing shifts. One energy revolution. The electrotech revolution. 

Electrotech has grown exponentially for decades. The difference today is that it’s too cheap to contain and too big to ignore. If current exponentials hold for five more years, global fossil demand falls off its plateau. Welcome to the Age of Electrotech.

1. Physics: Electrotech makes the energy system more efficient

Electrotech is around three times more efficient than fossil fuel systems, which waste two-thirds of primary energy inputs (380 exajoules) as heat at a cost of $5 trillion every year. Solar and electrification enable us to harness the power of the sun, which gives access to 100 times as much energy as fossil fuels. 

2. Economics: Electrotech gets cheaper as it scales

Fossil fuel commodities get more expensive as extraction continues, and their prices are elevated by major producers controlling the supply. Electrotech is manufactured and modular, resulting in clear technology learning curves, with costs falling by around 20% every time deployment doubles. Electotech is already capturing two-thirds of global energy investment and is responsible for all the expected growth in energy jobs. Electrotech contributed 10% of global GDP growth in 2023, including 22% in China, 5% in India, 30% in the EU and 7% in the US.

3. Geopolitics: Electrotech enhances independence and security

80% of the world lives in fossil fuel importing countries, with over 50 countries importing more than half their primary energy as fossil fuels. In contrast, 92% of countries have renewables potential over ten times their current demand. Replacing imported fossil fuels using three key levers—EVs, heat pumps and renewables—can cut net fossil fuel imports by 70%, saving $1.3 trillion globally each year. Once electrotech is bought, it lasts for decades, providing insulation from the vagaries of global pricing. When fossil flows stop, the economy stops. When electrotech flows stop, only growth is at risk.