Flooding disaster unfolding right now in Central Europe.
Why is it so bad?
This thread takes a quick look at some of the key ingredients of this record-breaking storm.
Let’s start with the background. It has been an exceptional Summer for the Mediterranean Sea. Heat records have been broken.
Warmer sea surface temperatures allow more moisture to evaporate, like fuel for a storm. The warmer the water, the greater the evaporation…
We then had a historic cold wave (for this early in September) plunge south out of the Arctic and through Europe.
We now have an unprecedented combination of hot and cold (ideal for strong thermal boundaries/weather fronts).
This plunge of cold was part of a cyclonic wave break, essentially cutting-off a low pressure from the main background flow.
This means a low pressure (storm) can get trapped and sit in the same place for days.
A closer look at the precipitable water shows how the atmospheric moisture sweeps through the Mediterranean and becomes focused in the Black Sea (which is also much hotter than normal).
The moisture then wraps around the storm, like an atmospheric river.
More detail at the Scott Duncan Link here.
I fear disasters like these push people into authoritarian populism, as voter’s own problems start to take precedence over those of immigrants (more people competing for limited budgets).