Not that long ago (July), I spoke to Global Temp expert Zeke Hausfather, and he mentioned an increased rate of warming which he quantified at .26 or .28 C per decade.
New paper has .40 C.
Nature – A recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028:
Here we analyze the latest observational temperature records through 2025 and identify a statistically significant doubling of the global warming rate during 2011–2025 (0.40 °C per decade) compared to 1971–2025 (0.20 °C per decade). Extrapolating this accelerated rate projects a crossing of the 1.5 °C threshold by 2028, nearly a decade earlier than previous estimates.
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One obvious objection would be that the period prior to this survey (pre 2011) would include the so called “pause” in global temperatures post 1998, which has been widely noted. The study period would be centered on the Big El Niño years of 2015-16, which included a dramatic jump in temperatures, so there is reason to be cautious.
In a March, 2026 conversation, Andrew Dessler asserted that a longer set of data, perhaps 30 years, would be required to make any definitive statements about an acceleration.