AP reports the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has a new evaluation of global efforts to mitigate climate change, and the US is failing.
If all the countries do what they promise to reduce heat-trapping emissions, Earth will likely still warm another 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above current temperatures, according to Wednesday’s update of climate calculations by the United Nations Environment Programme. That’s about two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit (0.1 degrees Celsius) more than last year’s projections by the same science team.
“This is a worse outcome than expected last year, as a result of the formal withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions,” the report said. The report also blames the United States for increased emissions last year, saying all the other top 20 major economies reduced their carbon pollution or at least slowed the growth in how much carbon dioxide was spewed from the burning of coal, oil and gas.
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That said, probably worth noting that Donald Trump’s catastrophic war in the Persian Gulf has jump started a global renewable transition. Ok, it’s not the way I would have done it, but it’s been pretty damn effective.
The Financial Times reported this week that President Trump is losing his battle with green energy.
America’s green energy build-out has proved remarkably resilient. In 2025, US utilities generated a record amount of electricity from renewable sources. This year, a record 45 gigawatts of clean-energy capacity is forecast to be added, according to S&P Global Energy. Despite Washington’s attacks on clean energy — as well as this year’s surge in fuel prices — global green-energy stocks have mostly outperformed their oil and gas counterparts since Trump’s second inauguration.
The report notes that the planet will pass the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, but it is still worthwhile to aim for the lowest possible “overshoot”.
United Nations Environmental Program:
The Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return looks at a ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around the middle of the century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C and global temperature rise is returned to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with about a 50 per cent chance.
To get onto this pathway, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would have to be reduced by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, all relative to 2025 levels. By contrast, the full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would only reduce emissions by 5-8 per cent by 2030 and 11-15 per cent by 2035, relative to 2025 levels. This implies average annual reduction rates of 5.7 per cent for 2025-2035, higher than the old Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) pathways laid out by the IPCC, which required annual reduction rates of about 5 per cent.
“Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message on the report. “The new Emissions Gap Report from the United Nations Environment Programme shows us what it will take: Cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 18 per cent by 2030 and 45 per cent by 2035 – compared with 2025 levels.”